.

.

4. : ,

:

, . , , . , , , , . ; . , , , . . , : [c.115]

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

;

1.

. , , . , . , , , , , , , , , , . , . , . , . [c.116] . 90- :

[ ], . , , . (, , , ) . ; ( ) 2.

, , ? , , : . , . , , . , - , . ( ), , . [c.117] - , .

.

-, . . . 1980- , , , 1900 3. 1918 , . . . S- : , , . , S, : , . , , - .

-, . , , , . . , . 1900 , , . 1910 1945 [c.118] , , . 1940 , 1945 , 1918 . , , . , , , . . , 1991 , , , , , 4. , , , .

-, . , , , , , , , , . , , , . , , , . [c.119]

1490 , , - 1,5 ( ) 52,2 . 1920 , 25,5 . 1993 , 12,7 . , , , . , , 1,8 1920 11 1993-. . 1900 30% , 45 ( 1920 48%). 1993 , , . 13% , 11%, 10% 2025 5. 1993 , .

, . . He- , , . [c.120] 1990- , , , - - , . . 1960- . 1990- ( ) . 50% 75% . 1970 41% ; 1992 71%. 1990- , [c.121] , . : 1960- , , ; 1990- ( ). 1960 [c.122] . 1960 1992 49% 73% , 34% 55% , 14% 73% , 18% 27% 19% 26% 6.

4.1 (. 121)

, , 19001993

-

-

-

-

--

-

1900

1920

1971

1993

20290

25447

12806

12711

164

400

4636

5682

4317

3913

3936

3923

54

54

1316

1279

3592

1811

9183

11054

161

261

142

145

7721

8098

7833

7819

8733

10258

10346

7169

7468

2258

2302

2718

*

1900

1920

1971

1993

38,7

48,5

24,4

24,2

0,3

0,8

8,8

10,8

8,2

7,5

7,5

7,5

0,1

0,1

2.5

2,4

6,8

3,5

17,5

21,1

0,3

0,5

0,3

0,3

14,7

15,4

14,9

14,9

16,6

19,5

19,7

13,7

14.3

4,3

4,4

5,2

: , .

* 52,5 . : Statesman's Year-Book (New York: St. Martin's Press, 19011927; World Book Atlas (Chicago: Field Enterprises Educational Corp., 19701: Britannica Book of the Year (Chicago: Encyclopaedia Britannica. Inc. 1992-1994).

: , Encyclopedia Bhtannica. 1994 Book of the Year (Chicago: Encyclopedia Britannka, 19941. P. 764-69).

4.3 (. 122)

( )

[

] *

-

-

-

-

-

--

-

1900

1920

1971

1990

1995

2010

2025

[1,6]

[1,9]

[3,7]

[5,3]

[5,8]

[7,2]

[8,5]

44,3

48,1

14,4

14,7

13,1

11,5

10,1

0,4

0,7

5,6

8,2

9,5

11,7

14,4

19,3

17,3

22,8

24,3

24,0

22,3

21,0

0,3

0,3

15,2

16,3

16,4

17,1

16,9

4,2

2,4

13,0

13,4

15,9#

17,9#

19,2#

3,5

4,1

2,8

2,3

2,2

1,8

1,5

3,2

4,6

8,4

9,2

9,3

10,3

9,2

8,5

13,9

10,0

6,5

6,1+

5,4+

4,9+

16,3

8,6

5,5

5,1

3,5

2,0

2,8

: , 1995-2025 1994 .

*

# .

+ , .

: United Nations, Population Division, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. World Populatbn Prospects. The 1992 Revision (New York: United Nations. 1993); Statesman's Year-Boot (New York: St Martin's Press, 1901-1927). World Almanac and Book of Facts (New York: Press Pub Co.. 1970-1993).

, , , , . . 1953 , 15 17% , . 1979 , 50% 47% , . - , , , . . . , , , . , .

, -, 1920 , . 1750 , , [c.123] . 1830 . , , . 1913 - , 1800-. , , 1928 84,2% . , , . 1980 57,8% , , 120 , 1860-7.

4.4

,

17501980, . ( = 100%)

1750

1800

1830

1860

1880

1900

1913

1928

1938

1953

1963

1973

1980

/

/

*

18,2

32,8

3,8

 

24,5

 

5,0

 

15,7

233

333

3,5

 

19,7

 

5,6

 

14,6

31,1

29,8

2,8

 

17,6

 

5,6

 

13,1

53,7

19,7

2,6

 

8,6

 

7,0

 

0,8

7,6

68,8

12,5

2,4

 

2,8

 

7,6

 

0,6

5,3

77,4

6,2

2,4

 

1,7

 

8,8

 

0,7

2,8

81,6

3,6

2,7

 

1,4

 

8,2

 

0,8

1,7

84,2

3,4

33

 

1,9

 

5,3

 

0,8

1,1

78,6

3,1

5,2

 

2,4

 

9,0

 

0,8

0,9

74,6

2,3

2,9

 

1,7

 

16,0

 

0,9

1,6

65,4

33

5,1

 

1,8

 

20,9

 

1,2

2,1

61,2

3,9

8,8

 

2,1

 

20,1

 

1,6

23

57,8

5,0

9,1

 

2,3

 

21,1

 

2,2

2,5

, , . 1950 64 ; 1980- [c.124] 49% (. . 4.5). 2013 , , 30%. , - : ( ), (), () (). 1992 , : , , , . , 2020 . , , 8.

4.5

, 19501992 ( )

-

--

-

-

-

-

--

- *

#

1950

1970

1980

1992

64,1

53,4

48,6

48,9

0,2

1,7

2,0

2,1

3,3

4,8

6,4

10,0

3,8

3,0

2,7

3,5

2,9

4,6

6,3

11,0

3,1

7,8

8,5

8,0

5,6

6,2

7,7

8,3

16,0

17,4

16,4

6,2

1,0

1,1

1,4

2,0

* 1992

# /

: 1950, 1970 1980 Herbert Block, The Planetary Product in 1980: A Creative Pause? (Washington D.C: Bureau of Public Affaires, U.S. Dept. of State, 1981). P. 3045). 1992 , 30 World Development Report (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994).

. . , , [c.125] , , . - , , . , , , , .

, . - . , , , , 1800 . .

: , , ; ; , , , ; . 1920- . . [c.126] , , . , . 1930- , . . , . , - .

4.6

( )

[ ]

-

-

-

--

-

-

--

--

1900

1920

1970

1991

[10086]

[8645]

[23991]

[25797]

43,7

48,5

26,8

21,1

1,6

3,8

2,1

3,4

10,0

17,4

24,7

25,7

0,4

0,4

6,6

4,8

16,7

3,6

10,4

20,0

1,8

2,9

0,3

1,0

9,4

10,2

4,0

6,3

16,6

12,8 *

25,1

14,3

0,1

0,5

2,3

3,5

: , . ( ) .
* 1924 , . J. M. Macintosh. // .. Liddel Hart. The Red Army 19181945; the Soviet Army 1946 to Present. N.Y., 1956.
: U.S. Army Control and Disarmament Agency. World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers. Washington. 19711974; Statesman's Year-Book. N.Y., 19011927.

, .
-, . , . [c.127] . . . , , . , , . . .
-, , , . , 35% $542.3 . ( 1994 ) 1990 $222.3 . 1998-. , . . 1985 1995 29 6 , 943 127 , 720 0 , 48 18 . 1980- , . 370 000 340 000 ( 320 .); 290 000 1990 225 000 1997-. 377 100 1985 274 800 1993-. . [c.128]
-, , , , . ; . , - . . , , , , , , , , , . 1985 1993 10% ( $539.6 $485.0 , 1993 ), 50% $89.8 . $ 134.8 .9
-, , , . , . 1960 1980 , , - , , , , . 1990- , , , 10. - (, , , , , , ), (, , , , ), , (). [c.129]
. , . , . , . , , . - , . . , 75% , 42% , 46% , 37% 46% . , . , .
, . , , [c.130] . - . 1920- , . 2020- , , 24% ( 49% ), 10% ( 48%) , , 1520% , 30% ( 70%), , 25% ( 84%) 10% ( 45%).
1919 , . , , , , , , -. . ; - , , . , , , , , , . . - . [c.131]

: -

. , , . - , , . . . . ; . , , , , . -- , , - *. [c.132]
, , , , , , , . , , , . , - , , , 11. ? , . , . , , . , , . - , , , .
1950- 60- , . , . , [c.133] . . 1000 1300 , , , , , 12. , , .
. - , , . , , , . , . . , . , , , . , - , , , , . , , , . ; - . [c.134]
, - . , , , () . - , , , . , , , , , , , . , , . , 13. , , . , .
. , . , . , -, , . . , , [c.135] . . , , . , , , . .. -, . . - . .
- . . . , . 1980- -, . , ; , , , . 14. , . , , , , [c.136] , , , , , .
: - . 1960- 70- ; 1980- 90- . , , , . - , , . , , , , , .
, . , 1992 . 15. - -, 1956 80- . 1949 , . , , [c.137] . , , , . , , , .
, , , , , . , , . , . , . , , , -, , , , , 16. , , , , , 17. , , .

La revanche de Dieu

, , , [c.138] . , , , . - , , , , , . , , , , . , , , , . , , . ( ), .. , 18.
, . , . , la revanche de Dieu, , , . 1970-, , . , , , . , , . aggiornamento, , , 19. [c.139]
, , . , , . , , , , . , , , . . , . -. , , . , . , , 20.
. , , . . 1994 30% 25 , . 50 1988 250 1993-. [c.140] , . , 1993 , . . , , . 21. . 1989 160 ( ); 1993 10000 . - , , 22.
? , . , . . , . ?
, , : , , . . , , . [c.141] . , , . , , . :
, . , 200 , 50 . , . , , , : , . , , . 23.

. , . . , . , ? ?, , , , - . , -, . [c.142] . , , , , , 24.
, , , , , , . , : "" , 25. , 26. , , 1000- , : , 27. , , , , , , . , , , , , , ( , ) , [c.143] , , 28.
, , , , , . , . , , , , . , , , 29.
, , , . , 1950 13 . , , , . , , , , . 30. 1980- , , 30 . [c.144]
. 7 1960 50 1990-. 1989 . , , , . , , , , . , 20% , 73% , 20 , 12 31. , , , , .
, , . - , , . , . , , . 1980- [c.145] . , 50 . , , , , 1994 , , - . , , 5 . 1980- , , , , 32. , . , , . 1993 , , , , . , , 33. , , la revanche de Dieu , : , .
, , , , [c.146] . , - , , , . - , . , , , , . , , . , , , . , - , . , , , , . , 34.
, , , . , , , , . , , , , , , , . . [c.147] , , , , , . , , -, . , , . , 35. , , , , 36. , , . .
, , . , , , , . , , , 37. , . , , . , , , , , 38. [c.148]
, . , . . 1990- , , , , 39. 1960- 70- .
, , , . , , , , , , , . , , , , , 40. - - . , , , , . , - . , : , . [c.149]

* , , - , , , . , , , , , , , . , , .

(c. 545548)

1. Jeffery R. Barnett, Exclusion as National Security Policy, Parameters, 24 (Spring 1994), 54. [c. 545]

2. Aaron L. Friedberg, The Future of American Power, Political Science Quarterly, 109 (Spring 1994), 2021. [c. 546]

3. Hedley Bull, The Revolt Against the West, Medley Bulland Adam Watson, eds., Expansion of International Society (Oxford: Oxford University Press 1984) p. 219. [c. 546]

4. Barry G. Buzan, New Patterns of Global Security in theTwenty-first Century, International Affairs, 67 (July 1991), 451. [c. 546]

5. Project 2025, (draft) 20 September 1991, p. 7; World Bank, World Development Report 1990 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 229, 244; The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1990 (Mahwah, NJ: Funk & Wagnalls, 1989), p. 539. [c. 546]

6. United Nations Development Program, Human DevelopmentReport 1994 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 136137, 207211; World Bank, World Development Indicators, World Development Report 1984, 1986, 1990, 1994; Bruce Russettet et al., World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators (NewHaven: Yale University Press, 1994), pp. 222226. [c. 546]

7. Paul Bairoch, International Industrialization Levels from 1750 to 1980, Journal of European Economic History, 11 (Fall 1982), 296, 304. [c. 546]

8. Economist, 15 May 1993, p. 83, . International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook; The Global Economy, Economist, 1 October 1994, pp. 39; Wall Street Journal, 17 May1993, p. A12; Nicholas D. Kristof, The Rise of China, Foreign Affairs, 72 (Nov./Dec. 1993), 61; Kishore Mahbubani, The PacificWay, Foreign Affairs, 74 (Jan. /Feb. 1995), 100103. [c. 546]

9. International Institute for Strategic Studies, Tables and Analyses, The Military Balance 199495 (London: Brassey's, 1994). [c. 546]

10. Project 2025, p. 13; Richard A. Bitzinger, The Globalization of Arms Production: Defense Markets in Transition (Washington, D. C: Defense Budget Project, 1993), passim. [c. 546]

11. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Changing Nature of World Power, Political Science Quarterly, 105 (Summer 1990), 181182. [c. 546]

12. William H. McNeill, The Rise of the West: A History of the Human Community (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1963), p. 545. [c. 546]

13. Ronald Dore, Unity and Diversity in Contemporary World Culture, . Bull and A. Watson, eds., Expansion of International Society, pp. 420421. [c. 546]

14. William E. Naff, Reflections on the Question of East andWest from the Point of View of Japan, Comparative Civilizations Review, 13/14 (Fall 1985 and Spring 1986), 219; Arata Isozaki, Escaping the Cycle of Eternal Resources, New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Spring 1992), 18. [c. 547]

15. Richard Sission, Culture and Democratization in India, Larry Diamond, Political Culture and Democracy in Developing Countries (Boulder: Lynne Rienner 1993), pp. 5561. [c. 547]

16. Graham E. Fuller, The Appeal of Iran, National Interest, 37 (Fall 1994), 95. [c. 547]

17. Eisuke Sakakibara, The End of Progressivism: A Search for New Goals, Foreign Affairs, 74 (Sept./Oct. 1995), 814. [c. 547]

18. T.S. Eliot, Idea of a Christian Society (New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company, 1940), p. 64. [c. 547]

19. Gilles Kepel, Revenge of God: The Resurgence of Islam, Christianity and Judaism in the Modem World (University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press, trans. Alan Braley 1994), p. 2. [c. 547]

20. George Weigel, Religion and Peace: An ArgumentComplexified, Washington Quarterly, 14 (Spring 1991), 27. [c. 547]

21. James H. Billington, The Case for Orthodoxy, New Republic, 30 May 1994, p. 26; Suzanne Massie, Back to the Future, Boston Globe, 28 March 1993, p. 72. [c. 547]

22. Economist, 8 January 1993, p. 46; James Rupert, DatelineTashkent: Post-Soviet Central Asia, Foreign Policy, 87 (Summer 1992), 180. [c. 547]

23. Fareed Zakaria, Culture Is Destiny: A Conversation withLee Kuan Yew, Foreign Affairs, 73, (Man/Apr. 1994), 118. [c. 547]

24. Hassan Al-Turabi, The Islamic Awakening's Second Wave, New Perspectives Quarterly, 9 (Summer 1992), 5255; Ted G. Jelen, The Political Mobilization of Religious Belief (New York: Praeger, 1991), pp. 55ff. [c. 547]

25. Bernard Lewis, Islamic Revolution, New York Review of Books, 21 January 1988, p. 47; G. Kepel, Revenge of God, p. 82. [c. 547]

26. Sudhir Kakar, The Colors of Violence: Cultural Identities, Religion, and Conflict (Unpublished manuscript), chap. 6, A NewHindu Identity, p. 11. [c. 547]

27. Suzanne Massie, Back to the Future, p. 72; J. Rupert, Dateline Tashkent, p. 180. [c. 547]

28. Rosemary Radford Ruther, A World on Fire with Faith, New York Times Book Review, 26 January 1992, p. 10; William H. [c. 547] McNeill, Fundamentalism and the World of the 1990s, Martin E. Marty and R. Scott Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and Society (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993), p. 561. [c. 548]

29. New York Times, 15 January 1993, p. A9; Henry Clement Moore, Images of Development: Egyptian Engineers in Search of Industry (Cambridge: M.I.T. Press, 1980), pp. 227228. [c. 548]

30. Henry Scott Stokes, Korea's Church Militant, New York Times Magazine, 28 November 1972, p. 68. [c. 548]

31. Rev. Edward J. Dougherty, S. J., New York Times, 4 July1993, p. 10; Timothy Goodman, Latin America's Reformation, American Enterprise, 2 (JulyAugust 1991), 43; New York Times, 11 July 1993, p. 1; Time, 21 January 1991, p. 69. [c. 548]

32. Economist, 6 May 1989, p. 23; 11 November 1989, p. 41; Times (London), 12 April 1990, p. 12; Observer, 27 May 1990, p. 18. [c. 548]

33. New York Times, 16 July 1993, p. A9; Boston Globe, 15 July 1993, p. 13. [c. 548]

34. . Mark Juergensmeyer, The New Cold War? Religious Nationalism Confronts the Secular State (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993) . [c. 548]

35. F. Zakaria, Conversation with Lee Kuan Yew, p. 118; H. Al-Turabi, Islamic Awakening's Second Wave, p. 53. . Terrance Carroll, Secularization and States of Modernity, World Politics, 36 (April 1984), 362382. [c. 548]

36. John L. Esposito, The Islamic Threat: Myth or Reality (NewYork: Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 10. [c. 548]

37. Regis Debray, God and the Political Planet, NewPerspectives Quarterly, 11 (Spring 1994), 15. [c. 548]

38. J.L. Esposito, Islamic Threat, p. 10; . Sophie Lannes, La revanche de Dieu Interview with Gilles Kepel, Geopolitique, 33 (Spring 1991), 14; H.. Moore, Images of Development, pp. 214216. [c. 548]

39. M. Juergensmeyer, The New Cold War, p. 71; Edward A. Gargan, Hindu Rage Against Muslims Transforming IndianPolitics, New York Times, 17 September 1993, p. A1; Khushwaht Singh, India, the Hindu State, New York Times, 3 August 1993, p. A17. [c. 548]

40. R. Dore . Bull and A. Watson, eds., Expansion ofInternational Society, p. 411; W.H. McNeill in M.E. Marty and R.S. Appleby, eds., Fundamentalisms and Society, p. 569. [c. 548]


















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