.

I

:

1. . . G.T. Trewartha..Geography of Population: World Patterns. New York, 1969, p. 30.

2. N. Tranter. Population Since the Industrial Revolution: The Case of England and Wales. New York, 1973, pp. 41-42.

3. . KH.W.H. McNeill. Plagues and Peoples. New York, 1976, ch. 6; . Razzell Population Growth and Economic Change in Eighteenth and Early Nineteenth-Century England and Ireland, . El. Jones and GE. Mingay (eds). Land, Labour and Population in the Industrial revolution. London, 1967, pp. 260-81.

4. T.R. Malthus. n Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement of Society. London, 1798, . . (New York, 1965, . 13).

5. Ibid., p. 22.

6. ILL. Heilbroner. The Worldty Philosophers. New York, 1986 edn pp. 77-78.

7. P. Mathias. The First Industrial Nation. London, 1969, p. 452; W.D. Mclntyre. Colonies into Commonwealth. London, 1966, p. 345.

8. . . Mathias. First Industrial Nation, pp. 64-80; . JJ. Chambers and GE. Mingay. The Agricultwal Revolution 1750-1880. New York, 1966.

9. D.S. Landes. The Unbound Prometheus: Technological Change and Industrial Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present. Cambridge, 1969, p. 1.

10. P. Kennedy. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. New York, 1987, pp 146-47; . . CM. Cipolla. The Economic History of World Population, 7th edn. Harmondworth, Mddsx., 1978, pp. 70ff., 115; W.H. McNeill. Population and Politics Since 1750. Charlottesville, Va 1990.

11. Mathias. First Industrial Nation. Table 15, p. 466.

12. . : R. Hyam. Britain's Imperial Century 1815-1914. London, 1975, p. 47.

13. . Landes. Unbound Prometheus.

14. JS. Ashton. The Industrial Revolution, 1760-1830. Oxford, 1968 edn., p. 129.

15. . . Bairoch International Industrialization Levels from 1750 to 1980, Journal of' European Economic History 11 (1982), p. 294.

16. Ashton. Industrial revolution, p. 129.

415

17. . . WJL McNeill. The Pursuit of Power Chicago, 1983, ch. 6.

18. ., , . EL. Jones. The European Miracle: Environments, Economies and Geopolitics in the History of Europe and Asia. Cambridge, 1981, CM. Cipolla (ed.). The Economic Decline of Empires. London, 1970.

19. . . Mendelssohn. Science and Western Domination. London, 1976.

20. , , . I. Fallows. More Like Us. New York, 1989; D. Burstein. Yen' New York, 1988; R. Rosecrance. America's Economic Resurgence. New York, 1990; S. Schlosstein. The End of theAmerican Century. New York, 1989.

2

1. Cipolla. Economic History of World Population, . . Brown. The Challenge of Man's Future. New York, 1954, p. 3.

2. . . Thomas-/4 History of the World. New York, 1979, pp. 49-50. . W.W. Rostow. The World Economy-History and Prospects. Austin, Texas, 1978, pp. 3-7. 1990 . :

World Population Prospects 1988. United Nations Population Division, New York. 1989, p. 28.

3. World Population Prospects 1988, p. 28; . N. Sadik. The State of the World Population. U.N.. Population Fund, New York, 1990.

4. Population Today, vol. 16, no. 1 (January 1988), p. 3; World Population Pace Quickens, Wall Street Journal, 14 May 1991, p.A18.

5. World Population Prospects 1988, pp. 27-32. : World Resources 1990-91, New York/Oxford, 1990, pp. 254-55.

6. World Population Prospects 1988, p. 37, Table IS.

7. Ibid..; M. Southeimer Die Erde ist voll, Die Zeit, 28 December 1990, Dossier, p. 13.

8. Cipolla. Economic History of World Population, pp. 89-90; . . McNeill, Plagues and Peoples, passim.

9. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 254,258.

10. Ibid., p. 254.

11. Ibid., pp. 254-55.

12. J. Axelbank, The Crisis of the Cities, Populi, vol. 15, no. 4 (1988), pp. 28-35; Sadik. State of the World Population, p. 9. ... , .: R. Wright and D. MacManus. Flashpoints. New York, 1991, p. 168.

13. Sadik. State of the World Population, p. 8.

14. TJ. Goliber Africa's Expanding Population: Old Problems, New Policies, Population Bulletin, vol. 44, no. 3 (November 1989), p.18.

416

15. T.C. Quinn et al. AIDS in Africa: An Epidemiological Paradigm, Science 234 (November 1986), pp. 955-58; . Hunt Scenes from a Nightmare, New York Times Magazine, 12 August 1990, pp. 24-26,50-51.

16. LJC. Altman W.H.0. Says 40 Million Will Be Infected with AIDS Virus by 2000, New York Times, 18 June 1991, p. C3.

17. AIDS in Africa, Economist, 25 November 1989, p. 16.

18. Goliber Africa's Expanding Population, p. 22. : J. Bougaarts Modeling the Demographic Impact of AIDS in Africa; .

19. . : World Resources 1990-91, pp. 244-65. .: S?. Linder. The Pacific Century, Stan-ford, Cal 1986; J.W. Morley (ed.). The Pacific Basin. New York, 1986; M. Smith et a\.,Asia's New IndustrialWorld. London, 1985.

20. R. Rosecrance The Rise of the Trading States. New York, 1985. .

21. . AJ. Coale and . Hoover. Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries. Princeton, NJ., 1958, . . D.H. Meadows et al The Limits to Growth. New York, 1972; PJL Ehrlich. The Population Bomb. New York, 1968; HE. Daty. Steady State Economics. San Francisco, 1977.

22. J. Simon. The Ultimate Resource. Princeton, NJ., 1981, p. 6, and passim. . . D.A. Ahlburg The Impact of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Developing Nations: The Evidence From Macroeconomic-Demographic Models, . D.G. Johnson and RJD. Lee. Population Growth and Economic Development: Issues and Evidence. Madison, Wis., 1987, pp. 479-522.

23. PJL Ehrlich and AE. Ehrlich. The Population Explosion. New York, 1990, p. 134. . ML. Wald America Is Still Demanding a Full Tank, New York Times, 12 August 1990, p. E3.

24. . Population Explosion P.R. Ehrlich. The Population Bomb. New York, 1968, . : LJL Brown et al. State of the World 1990, passim; World Resources 1990-91; Our Common Future. World Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford, 1987.

25. Simon. Ultimate Resource, passim.

26. . M.S. Teitelbaum and 1M. Winter. The Fear of Population Decline. Or-lando, Fla./London, 1976, ch. 2.

27. GD. Foster Global Demographic Trends to the Year 2010: Implications forU-S. Security, Washington Quarterly 12 (Spring 1989), p. 10.

28. ., , KLR. Andrews. Elizabethan Privateering. Cambridge, 1974, passim; W.H. McNeill. The Pursuit of Power. Chicago, 1983, pp. 185ff.

29. BJ.Wattenberg. The Birth Dearth. New York, 1987, passim.

30. Wall Street Journal, 5 June 1991, .10.

31. World Resources 1990-91,?. 257.

32. Ibid., pp. 256-257.

33. Ten Billion Mouths, Economist, 20 January 1990.

417

34. Teitelbaum and Winter. Fear of Population Decline, passim.

35. . . G.R. Searle. Eugenics and Politics in Britain, 1900-1914. Leyden, 1976; . Teitelbaum and Winter. Fear of Population Decline.

36. Teitelbaum and Winter.Fear of Population Decline, esp. chs. 5-7. . . Davis et al. (eds.) Below-Replacement Fertility in Industrial Societies ( : Population and Development Review 12 (1986).

37. Foster Global Demographic Trends to the Year 2010, passim, N. Eber-stadt Population Change and National Security, Foreign Affairs, vol. 70, no. 3 (Summer 1991), pp. 115-31.

38. G.V.Scammell. The World Encompassed: The First European Maritime Empires, c. 800-1650, Berkeley, Cal., 1981; J.H. Parry. The Age of Reconnaissance, 2nd edn.London, 1966.

39. Cipolla. Economic History of World Population, p. 120.

40. . Von Laue. The World Revolution of Westernization. New York/Oxford, 1987, passim.

41. The Would-Be European, Economist, 4 August 1990, pp. 14-15.

42. . McNeill. Population and Politics Since 1750, pp. 60-71; Teitelbaum and Winter. Fear of Population Decline, passim; . : W. Alonso (ed.) Population in an Interacting World. Cambridge, Mass., 1987; S. Castles et al. Here for Good: Western Europe's New Ethnic Minorities. London, 1984. . . Horwitz and C. For-man Immigrants to Europe from the Third World Face Racial Animosity, Wall Street Journal, 14 August 1990, pp.Al.A8.

43. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 254-55. , . . . Young Australia's Population: A Long-Term View, Current Affairs Bulletin (Sydney) 65 (May 1989), pp. 4-11.

44. Eberstadt Population Change and National Security, p. 125.

45. D. Johnston Rise in Crossings Spurs New Actions to Seal U.S. Border, New York Times, 9 February 1992, pp. 1,30; A. Riding France Unveils Strict New Rules on Immigration, New York Times, 11 July 1991, p. A5.

46. One Sign of Our Times: World's Refugee Flood, New York Times, 12 August 1990,p.16.

47. McNeill. Population and Politics, p. 69.

48. Eberstadt Population Change and National Security, p. 1

49. Ibid., p. 129.

,

1. , , , . Bairoch International Industrialization Levels from 1750 to 1980, p. 273.

2. M. Moynihan. Global Consumer Demographics. New York, 1991, p. 28.

3. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 244-45.

418

4. World Development Report 1990. Washington, D.C., 1990, p. iii.

5. R. Aggarwal The Strategic Challenge of the Evolving Global Economy, Business Horizons, July-August 1987, pp. 38-44; W.B. Wriston Technology and Sovereignty, Foreign Affairs, vol. 67, no. 2 (Winter 1988-89), p. 71. . B.C. Resnick The Globalization of World Financial Markets, Business Horizons 32 (November-December 1989), pp. 34-41; The Stateless Corporation, Business Work, 14 May 1990, pp. 98-105;

. Malmgren Technology and the Economy, kh.w.e. Brock and RJ). Hormats (eds.). The Global Economy: America's Role in the Decade Ahead. New York/London, 1990, pp. 92-119. : . Drucker The Changed World Economy, Foreign Affairs 64 (Spring 1984), pp. 768-91.

6. . Resnick Globalization of World Currency Markets, passim; International Banking Economist (Survey), 25 March 1989; . Pierog How Technology Is Tackling 24-Hour Global Markets, Futures, vol. 17, no. 6 (June 1989), pp. 68-74; GA. Keyworth II Goodbye, Central: Telecommunications and Computing in the 1990s, Vital Speeches of the Day, vol 56, no. 12 (1 April 1990), pp. 358-61.

7. C.F. Bergsten. America in the World Economy: A Strategy for the 1990s. Washington, D.C., 1988, pp. 59-60.

8. . Ohmae. The Borderless World: Management Lessons in the New Logic of the Global Marketplace. New York/London, 1990, passim. . Wriston Technology and Sovereignty; Keyworth Goodbye Central, passim.

9. James N. Rosenau The Relocation of Authority in a Shrinking World, , 1990.

10. A.W. Pessin Communications and Revolution: 1989, the Year Communications Got a Good Name, Vital Speeches of the Day, vol 56, no. 14 (1 May 1990), .425.

11. Ohmae. Borderless World, p. 3.

12. Ibid.

13. R.B. Reich. The Work of Nations. New York, 1990, pp. 3-4,8-9.

14. Ibid., pp. 115-16,126.

15. Ohmae. Borderless World, p. 170.

16. S. Strange Finance, Information, and Power, Review of International Studies, vol. 16, no. 3 (July 1990), p. 274. . . Helleiner States and the Future of Global Finance, Review of International Studies, vol. 18, no. 1 (January 1992), pp. 31-49.

17. 1914 . ., : M. de Cecco. Money and Empire: The International Gold Standard, 1890-1914. Oxford, 1974. . . RJ'. Gil-pin. The Political Economy of International Relations. Princeton, 1987, chs. 4 and 9.

18. .

19. -. . Reich. Work of Nations, p. 141. : US. Business Loosen Link to Mother Country, New York Times, 28 May 1984.

20. . Reich. Work of Nations, pp. 295-96. . . Harlan and J.

419

Mitchell Rage, Relief and Warning to UAW Mark GM Decision on Closing Plant Wall Street Journal, 25 February 1992, p. A8; GA. Patterson How GM's Car Plant in Arlington, Texas, Hustled to Avoid Ax, Wall Street Journal, 6 March 1992, pp A1.A4. "

21. Reich. Work of Nations, pp. 295-98. .

22. Ibid., p. 23. .

23. Ohmae. Borderless World.

24.Ibid.,p.xii.

25. Rosenau Relocation of Authority, passim.

4

1. L.R. Brown et al. State of the World 1990, p. 5.

2. . Johnstone Fading of the Miracle, and Sowing for the Future, Far East Economic Review, 1 December 1988, pp. 72-75.

3. . L.R. Brown and IE. Young Feeding the World in the Nineties, ch. 4 of State of the World 1990; . Ehrlich and Ehrlich. Population Explosion, chs. 4-5. . D.T. Avery Mother Earth Can Feed Billions More, Wall Street Journal, 19 September 1991 (op-ed), J.L. Simon. Population Matters. New Brunswick, NJ 1990.

4. Johnstone Fading of the Miracle, passim.

5. : World Resources 1990-91, . 86.

6. : L.R. Brown et al. State of the World 1990, p. 65, , , : World Resources 1990-91, . 87.

7. World Resources 1990-91, . 87; N. Calder. The Green Machines. NewYork, 1986,pp.109-18.

8. Johnstone Sowing for the Future, p. 72.

9. Technology, Public Policy, and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Washington, D.C., 1986, p. 4.

10. .: Biotechnology Survey, Economist, 30 April 1988. . JJL. Marx (ed.)A Revolution in Biotechnology. Cambridge, 1989;

S. Prentis. Biotechnology: A New Industrial Revolution. NewYork 1984; R. Teitel-man. Gene Dreams. New York, 1989; B.D. Davis (ed.). The Genetic Revolution:

Scientific Prospects and Public Perceptions. Baltimore/London, 1991.

11. Biotechnology Survey, Economist, 30 April 1988, p. 6; Agricultural Biotechnology: The Next Green revolution?, World Bank Technical Paper no. 133, Washington, D.C., 1991.

12. . : S. Browlee The Best Banana Vted,Atlantic 264 (September 1989), pp. 22, 24, 28; . Schneider Betting the Farm on Biotech, New York Times Magazine, 10 June 1990, Business World, pp. 26-28,36,38-39; JM Nash A Bumper Crop of Biotech, Time, 1 October 1990, pp. 92-94; The Tomatoes of

420

the Tree of Knowledge, Economist, 14 July 1990, p. 83; D.E. Hanke Seeding the Bamboo Revolution, Nature, 22 (1990).

13. Science, 16 June 1989, . 1281.

14. J. Doyle Sustainable Agriculture and the Other Kind of Biotechnology, p. 173; , : Reform and Innovation of Science and Education: Planning for the 1990 Farm Bill (U.S. Senate, Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, Washington, D.C., 1989); M. Mellon An Environmentalist Perspective, . Davis (ed.). Genetic Revolution, pp. 60-76. : R.E. Rhoades The World's Food Supply at Risk, National Geographic (April 1991), pp. 74-105.

15. Busch et al. Plants, Power, and Profit: Social, Economic and Ethical Consequences of the New Biotechnologies. Cambridge, Mass./Oxford, 1991, p. 186 ( ).

16. . Schneider Betting the Farm on Biotech, passim.

17. Busch et al. Plants, Power, and Profit, p. 184.

18. . , .:

J. Doyle DNAIt's Changing the Whole Economy, Christian Science Monitor, 30 September 1987, Who Will Gain from Biotechnology? . SA1. Gendel et al. Agricultural Bioethics. Ames, Iowa, 1990, p. 185 . . M. Kenney, Boitechnology: The University-Industrial Complex. New Haven/London,1986,ch.10.

19. D. Goodman et al. From Farming to Biotechnology. A Theory of Agro-Industrial Development. Oxford, 1987, p. 138 and passim; E. Yoxen. The Gene Business. NewYork, 1983, esp.pp. 140-148.

20. . G. Junne and J. Birman The Impact of Biotechnology on European Agriculture, . E. Yoxen and V. Di Martino. Biotechnology in Future Society. Aldershot, 1989, p. 79.

21. Biotechnology Survey, Economist, 30 April 1988, p. 17.

22. . . Schneider Biotechnology Enters Political Race, New York Times, 21 April 1990; G. Gugliotta Bovine Growth Hormone Stirs a Debate in Wisconsin, Washington Post, National Weekly Edition, July 2-8,1990, p. 39; New York Times of 19 May and 12 June 1990.

23. D. Dickson German Biotech Firms Flee Regulatory Controls, Science, 16 June 1990, pp. 1251-52.

24. . Busch et al. Plants, Power, and Profit, pp. 175,178.

25. Yesterday's Farming, Economist, 20 August 1988, passim; MJL LaGanga U.S. Agriculture, Biotech Firms Cut Good Deals with Japanese, Los Angeles Times, 9 April 1990, p. D3; H. Yamaguchi Biotechnology: New Hope for Japan's Farmers, Business Japan, April 1987, pp. 36-40.

26. . Dickson German Biotech Firms Flee Regulatory Controls, passim.

27.A. Gibbons Biotechnology Takes Root in the Third World, Science, 25May 1990,p.962.

421

28. , . Juma. The Gene Hunters: Biotechnology and the Scramble for Seeds. London/Princeton, NJ., 1989, pp 117-24.

29. LJL Brown et al. State of the World 1990, p. 71.

30. Ibid.

31. JJL Kloppenburg The Social Impacts ofBiogenetic Technology in Agriculture: Past and Future, . G.M. Berardi and C.C. Geisler (eds.) The Social Consequences and Challenges of New Agricultural Technologies. Boulder, Colo., 1984, p. 318.

32. Busch et al. Plants, Power, and frofa, pp. 172,175,181-82. .

33. Ibid., pp. 183-85. . . J.R. Kloppenburg. First the Seed: The Political Economy of Plant Biotechnology 1492-2000. Cambridge, 1988.

34. . L.R. Brown's Re-examining the World Food Prospect, Stale of the World 1989, pp. 41-58; D.T. AveryThe Green Revolution Is Our Real Food Security, Hudson Institute, Briefing Paper 112,18 October 1989. . : Davis (ed.) Genetic Revolution.

5

.

1.Landes. Unbound Prometheus, p. 41.

2. Kennedy. Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pp. 126-39.

3. . T.S. Harmerow. Restoration, Revolution, Reaction: Economics and Politics in Germany, 1815-1871. Princeton, NJ., 1958,chs.2,5,and8.

4. . .. Scott. The Robotics Revolution. Oxford/New York, 1982,p.10.

5. Ibid.; . W.B. Gevarter. Intelligent Machines. Englewood Cliffs, NJ.,1985,p.161.

6. , , . : Annual Review of Engineering Industries and Automation, 1988, vol. 1 (UN Economic Commission for Europe, N.Y., 1989), p. 53.

7. Robotics Technology and Its Varied Uses, Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology, VS. Congress, 25 September 1989 (Washington, D.C., 1989), , .. ; . K.G. Engelhardt Innovations in Health Care: Roles for Advanced Intelligent Technologies, Pittsburgh High Technology Journal, vol. 2, no. 5, pp. 69-72.

8. Robotics Technology and Its Varied Uses, pp. 15,19,24.

9. J. Baranson. Robots in Manufacturing. Mt. Airy, Md., 1983, p. 67.

10. Ibid., pp. 39-41, 111-27; Robotics Technology and Its Varied Uses, p. 76;

P.T. Kilbom Brave New World Seen for Robots Appears Stalled by Quirks and Costs, New York Times, 1 July 1990, p. 16.

422

11. Kilbom Bare New World Seen.

12. Baranson. Robots in Manufacturing, p. 86.

13. Robotics Technology and Its Varied Uses, p. 172.

14.Annual Review of Engineering Industries and Automation, p. 53.

15. Japan's New Idea: Technology for the 21st Century, Industry Week Special Report, 5 September 1990, p. 42.

16. Bodybuilding Without Tears, Economist, 21 April 1990, p. 138.

17. , : F.L. Schodt In the Land of Robots, Business Month 132 (November 1988), pp. 67-75; F. Hiatt Japanese Robots Reproducing Like Rabbits: High-Tech Capital Investment Helps Fuel Economic Miracle, Washington Post, 2 January 1990, pp. Al, A13; : D.F. Urbanials The Unattended factory, 13th International Symposium on Industrial Robots, and Robots 7:

Conference Proceedings, vol. 1 (Dearborn, Mich., 1983), pp. 1-18 to 1-24.

18. . : MJ.E. Cooley Robotics-Some Wider Implications, The World Yearbook of Robotics Research and Development (1985),pp.95-104.

19. . : Schodt and Hiatt (. 17).

20. . 11, . 258.

21. . Camoy High Technology and International Labour Markets, International Labour Review, vol. 124, no. 6 (1985), p. 649.

22. Ibid., p. 650.

23. Ibid., p. 653.

24. Japan's New Idea, Industry Week, p. 69.

25. . 3.

6

1. , , : B.L. Turner et al. The EorthAs Transformed by Human Action:

Global and Regional Changes in the Biosphere over the Past 300 Years. Cambridge, Mass., 1990; World Resources 1990-91, pp. 1-10; L.R. Brown et al. State of the World 1990, esp. ch. 1, The Illusion of Progress, pp. 3-16; . Oppenheimer and R.H. Boyle. Dead Heat: The Race Against the Greenhouse Effect. New York, 1990, ch. 2; Rostow. World Economy: History and Prospects, esp. pts. 1 and 6.

2. L.R. Brown et al. State of the World 1990, p. 6.

3. S. Hecht and A. Cockbum. The Fate of the Forest: Developers, Destroyers and Defenders oftheAmazon. London/New York, 1989, passim; K. Maxwell The Tragedy of the Amazon, New York Review of Books 38 (7 March 1991), pp. 24-29.

4. World Resources 1990-91, p. 106.

5. . . D. Ives and . Messerli. The Himalayan Dilemma: Reconciling Development and Conservation. London/New York, 1989, ch. 1. , , , .

423

6. LJL Brown et al. State of the World 1990, p. 5.

7. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 101-2. 20,4 . .

8. . W.V. Reid and KJL Miller. Keeping Options Open: The Scientific Basisfor Conserving Biodiversity. Washington, D.C., 1989, passim.

9. A Latin American Ecological Alliance ( ), New York Times, 22 July 1991, p. All.

10. F. Painton Where the Sky Stays Dark, Time, 28 May 1990, pp. 40-41.

11. L.R. Brown et al. State of the World 1990, p. 100.

12. Ibid., p. 109.

13. . :

World Resources 1990-91, ch. 10, Freshwater.

14. L.R. Brown et al. State of the World 1990, p. 43, .

15. Ibid., pp. 44-45.

16. World Resources 1990-91, . 171, The DyingAral Sea.

17. Ibid., pp. 176-77.

18. S. Postel. Water. Rethinking Management in an Age of Scarcity, World watch Paper 62 (December 1984), esp. pp. 20-22; . : . Reisner. adillac Desert. New York, 1986, passim.

19. : World Resources 1990-91, ch. 2, Climate Change: A Global Concern, pp. 11-31; . Gleick Climate Change and International Politics: Problems Facing Developing Countries,Ambio 18 (1989), pp. 333-39; . Gleick The Implications of Global Changes for International Security, Climate Change 15 (1989), pp. 309-25.

20. , , , , 30 1992 .

21. S.H. Schneider. Global Warming. San Francisco, 1989, esp. pp. 18-19. . Under the SunIs Our World Warming? National Geographic, vol. 178, no. 4 (October 1990), p. 73 .

22. World Resources 1990-91, . 14.

23. S. Shulman Hot Air-or What?,Nature 345 (14 June 1990), . 4562; DL. Wheeler Scientists Studying The Greenhouse Effect' Challenge Fears of Global Warming, Journal of Forestry, vol 88, no. 7 (1989), pp. 34-36; WX. Stevens Carbon Dioxide Rise May Alter Plant Life, Researchers Say, New York Times, 18 September 1990, pp. Cl, C9. . : Climatic Change 6 (1985). . Avery The Green Revolution Is Our Real Food Security. Simon. Population Matters, passim; W. Tucker. Pogress and Privilege. New York, 1982.

24. . : US. National research Council's report Changing Climate (Washington, D.C., 1983); J. Hansen et al.

424

Global Climate Changes as Forecast by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Mode}, Journal of Geophysical Research 93 (1988), pp. 9341-64 ( ), RA. Kerr New Greenhouse Report Puts Down Dissenters, Science 249 (3 August 1990), pp. 481-82, , 1990 .

25. D. Goleman Antarctica Sheds Ice and Scientists Wonder Why, New York Times, 14 August 1990, pp. Cl, C8.

26. , , , 2030 . 8-29 , , , . (Kerr New Greenhouse Report p. 481). , , , 1,5-3,5 , (Goleman Antarctica Sheds Ice, p. C8). . : S. Hoffman Estimates of Future Sea Level Rise, . .. Barth and J.G. Titus (eds.). Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise. New York, 1984.

27. . E.D. Fajer et al. The Effects of Enriched Carbon Dioxide Atmospheres on Plant-Insect Herbivores Interactions, Science 243 (1989), pp. 1198-1200.

28. J. Broadus et al. Rising Sea Level and Damming of Rivers: Possible Effects in Egypt and Bangladesh . J.G. Titus (ed.). Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, vol 4, Sea Level Rise. Washington, D.C., 1986.

29. : World Resources 1990-91. pp. 244-55.

30. J. Hoffman et al. Projecting Future Sea Level Rise: Methodology, Estimate to the Year 2 000, and Research Needs. Washington, D.C., 1983, passim.

31. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 254-55.

32. T.F. Homer-Dixon On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Connict, International Security, vol. 16, no. 2 (Fall 1991), pp. 76-116;

Gleick Implications of Global Change for International Security, passim.

33. Hoffman et ^.Projecting Future Sea Level Rise.

34. ., , S. Manabe and R.T. Wetherald Large-Scale Changes of Soil Wetness Induced by an Increase in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 44 (1987), pp. 1211-35.

35. Gleick Implications of Global Climate Changes for International Security, passim.

36. D.V. Williams Estimated Bioresource Sensitivity to Climate Change in Alberta, Canada, Climatic Change 7 (1985), pp. 55-69; . Smit et al. Sensitivity of Crop Yields and Land Resource Potential to Climate Change in Ontario, Canada, Climatic Change 14 (1989), pp. 153-74.

37. . . 86-87 : Under the SunIs Our World Warming?

38. Energy and the Environment, Economist Survey, August 1991; M.W. Browne 93 Nations Agree to Ban Chemicals That Harm Ozone, New York Times, 30 June 1990, p. Al.

425

39. . Flavin Slowing Global Warming . L.R. Brown et al. State of the World 1990, p. 21.

40. , , : J. MacNeill et al. Beyond Interdependence. New York/Oxford, 1991, chs. 4-5; Flavin Slowing Global Warming pp. 17-38; World Resources 1990-91, pp. 24-30; Oppenheimer and Boyle. Dead Heat, passim; Schneider. Global Warming, pp. 260(). . Y. Hamakawa Photovoltaic Power, Scientific American 156 (April 1987), pp. 87-92.

41. World Resources 1990-91, p. 105.

42. L.R. Brown et al. Stale of the World 1990, p. 20.

43. . . . Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit. New York, 1992, . , -, ?

44. . . 23 How to Find an Ozone Hole, Wall Street Journal, 28 February 1992, p. A14.

45. W.D. Nordhaus Global Warming: Slowing the Greenhouse Express, Cowes Foundation Paper no. 758 (Yale University, New Haven, 1990), passim.

46. M.D. Lowe Cycling into the Future . L.R. Brown et al.State of the World 1990, ch.7.

47. P. Lewis Balancing Industry with the Ecology, New York Times, 2 March 1992,p. A3.

7

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2. : . Dollinger. La Hanse, Paris, 1964, . : Scammell. World Encompassed, ch. 2.

3. . V.G. Kieman State and Nation in Western Europe, Past and Present 31 (1965), pp. 20-38; . D. Kaiser. Political and War. European Conflict from Philip II to Hitler. Cambridge, Mass., 1990, ch. 2.

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5. 0. Ranum (ed.). National Consciousness, History and Political Culture in Early-Modem Europe. Baltimore/London, 1975; C.Jones (ed.). Britain and Revolutionary France: Conflict, Subversion and Propaganda, Exeter Studies in History, no. 5. Exeter, 1983; L. Colley The Apotheosis of George III: Loyalty, Royalty and the British Nation 1760-1820, Past and Present 102 (February 1984), pp. 94-129;

idem., Britons. New Haven/London, 1992.

6. M. Howard. The Lessons of History.NewHaven, Conn., 1991, chs. 4-7; J.Joll. The Origins of the First World War. London/New York, 1984, chs. 4-5 and 7-8.

426

7. B:A.Marwick. War and Social Change in the Twentieth Century, London, 1974; A. Calder. The People's War. London, 1969.

8. G. Adama. The Iron Triangle. New York, 1981; R.W. DeGrasse. Military Expansion, Economic Decline. Armonk, N.Y., 1985 edn.; L. Thurow How to Wreck the Economy, New York Review of Books, 14 May 1981, pp. 3-8; M. Kaldor. The Baroque ArsenaL London, 1982; R. Cohen and PA. Wilson. Superpowers in Economic Decline. New York, 1990.

9. J. Joffe Germany After NATO, Harper's Magazine, September 1990, p. 31; EJN. Luttwak, From Geopolitics to Geo-Economics, National Interest 20 (Summer 1990), p. 19; N. Munro Atwood: New Power Found in Economies, Defense News, 4 December 1989, p. 18 ( ); C.V. Prestowitz et al., (eds.). Powemomics: Economies and Strategy After the Cold War. Lanham, Md 1991.

10. . . . Westing. Global Resources and International Conflict. Oxford/New York, 1986, : J.R. Starr and D.C. Stoll. The Politics of Scarcity. Water in the Middle East. Boulder, Colo., 1988.

11. .. Moran International Economics and National Security, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 5 (Winter 1990-91), pp. 80-82; . Moran The Globalization of America's Defense Industries: Managing the Threat of Foreign Dependence, International Security 15 (Summer 1990), pp. 57-100.

12. . . 9, : .. Sorensen Rethinking National Security, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 3 (Summer 1990), pp. 1-18; W. Greene An Idea Whose Time Is Fading, Time, 28 May 1990, p. 90 ( ).

13. . S. Hassan Environmental Issues and Security in South Asia,Adelphi Papers 262 (Autumn 1991), passim; . .: Westing (ed.). Global Resources and International Conflict.

14. . .: J.T. Mathews Redefining Security, Foreign Affairs, vol. 68, no. 2 (Spring 1989), pp. 174-77, . L. Brown et al. State of the World 1990, passim.

15. Moran International Economics and National Security, p. 90.

16. , , (. 3, . 9)

17. Immanuel Kant. Zum Ewigen Frieden (1795); Stuttgart, 1954 edn., p. 49. : H.W. Smith Nationalism and Religious Conflict in Imperial Germany 1887-1914, PhJ). dissertation, Yale University, 1991, pp.1-2.

8 ͻ 2000

1. . H. Kahn. The Emerging Japanese Superstate. London, 1971; E.F. Vogel. Japan as Number One; Lessons for America. New York, 1980 edn.; E.F. Vogel Pax Nipponica, Foreign Affairs, vol. 64, no 4 (Spring 1986), pp. 752-67; Burstein.

427

Yen! T.R. Zengage and C.T. Ratcliffe. The Japanese Century. Hong Kong, 1988. . RM Morse Japan's Drive to Pre-eminence, Foreign Policy 69 (Winter 1987-88), pp. 3-21.

2. J.S. Nye, Jr. Bound to Lead. New York, 1990, pp. 154-70; K.E. House Though Rich, Japan Is Poor in Many Elements of Global Leadership, Wall Street Journal, 30 January 1989, pp. 1-9; R. Taggert Murphy Power Without Purpose, Harvard Business Review 66 (March-April 1988), pp. 71-83; Fallcws.More Like Us;

K. van Wotferen. The Enigma of Japanese Power. London/New York, 1989; B.Em-mott. The SunAlso Sets: The Limits to Japan's Economic Power. New York, 1989.

3. . Vogel. Japan as Number One, chs. 3-9.

4. , , : Ibid., ch. 7; T.P. Rohlen.Japan's High Schools. Berkeley, Cal., 1983, passim; RJ. Dore and M. Sako. How the Japanese Learn to Work. London, 1989; M. White. The Japanese Educational Challege. New York, 1959. . : M. And J. Sayle Why Our Children to a Japanese School, Tokyo Journal, August 1990, pp. 78-83, , Why Can't Little Taro Think?, Economist, 21 April 1990, pp. 21-24, .

5. 1987 . . : Education in Japan, Foreign Press Center, Tokyo, 1988,p.17.

6. : Dore and Sako. How the Japanese Learn to Work, p. 1 ( ); Education in Japan, pp. 18-19 ( ); Fortune, 6 November 1989, . 88 ( );

Why Can't Little Taro Think? p. 23 ( ).

7. : UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1989, tables 5.15 and 5.17; Kennedy. Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, p. 464. .: G. Bylinsky Trying to Transcend Copycat Science, Fortune, 30 March 1987, pp. 42-46; Who Are the Copycats Now? Economist, 20 May 1989, pp. 91-94. :

Japanese Technology, Economist Survey, 2 December 1989. .

8. : Burstein.Yen/; Emmott. SunAlso Sets', van Wolferen. Enigma. . The New Global Top Banker: Tokyo and Its Mighty Money, New York Times, 27 April 1986, pp. 1,16.

9. ., , J. Womack et al. The Machine That Changed the World. London, 1990, passim; Japan's New Idea, Special Report to Industry Week, 3 September 1990, pp. 34-69; . Bowonder and T. Miyake Technology Development and Japanese Industrial Competitiveness, Futures vol. 22, no. 1 (January-February 1990,pp.21-45.

10. : M. Porter. The Competitive Advantage of Nations. New York, 1990, esp. ch. 5.

11. 1989 . 549 , 513 . New Haven Register, Associated Press report, 24 June 1990, p. A9. For the yen-to-dollar exchange rate, see The Joy of High Costs, Economist, 4 March 1989, p. 66.

12. : Zengage and Ratcliffe. Japanese Century, ch. 2; Japanese Technology, Economist Survey, 2 December 1989.

428

13. P. Revzin Japanese Systematically Invest in Europe Prior to 1992 Changes, Wall Street Journal, 10 December 1990, p.A7A.

14. . : Linder. Pacific Century, p. 12, . : Japan in the Year 2000 study; C.F. Bergsten The World Economy After the Cold War, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 3 (Summer 1990), p. 96.

15. . (Chalmers Johnson. MITI and the Japanese Miracle. Stanford, Cal., 1982); . : Enigma, ch. 5, The Administrators.

16. : . Olsen. U.S. Japanese Strategic Reciprocity: A Neo-Nationalist View. Stanford, Cal., 1985, passim; G. Segal. Rethinking the Pacific. Oxford, 1990, pp. 242-45.

17. . : H.W. Maull Germany and Japan: The New Civilian Powers, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 5 (Winter 1990-91), p. 92.

18. . R. Robinson and l.Ga\\ag1ner,AfiicaandtheVictorians. London, 1961, ch. 1, The Spirit of Victorian Expansion.

19. J. Steingold Japan Builds East Asia Links, Gaining Labor and Markets, New York Times, 8 May 1990, pp. Al, D18; Segal, Rethinking the Pacific, p. 365; Far East Economic Review, 3 May 1990, pp. 46-55; The Yen Block, Economist Survey, 15 July 1989; Japan Builds a New Power Base, Business Week, 20 March

1989. pp. 18-23. Richard P. Cronin Japan's Expanding Role and Influence in the Asia-Pacific Region: Implications for U.S. Interests and Policy, Congressional Research Service paper, Washington, D.C., September

1990.

20. . van Wolferen, Enigma, passim; Fallows, More Like Us, passim; J. Taylor. Shadows of the Rising Sun: A Critical View of the Japanese Miracle. New York, 1984; S. Kamata.Japen in the PassingLane. New York, 1984.

21. D. Moisi If Japan Is So Successful, Where Are Its Imitators? International Herald Tribune, 24 October 1990, p. 7; Nye. Bound to Lead, pp. 166-69. . : van Wolferen, Enigma, passim; I. Buruma. Behind the Mask. New York, 1984.

22. : . Prestowitz. Trading Places: How We Allowed Japan to Take the Lead. New York, 1988;

: Enigma, pp. 393().

23. Pity those Poor Japanese, Economist, 24 December 1988; Japan's Silent Majority Starts to Mumble, Business Week, 23 April 1990, pp. 52-54.

24. : Emmott. SunAlso Sets; . Tokyo Sings the Blues, Economist, 24 November 1990, p. 31; Can Japan Cope? Business Week, 23 April 1990, pp. 46-51. . : L.G. Martin The Graying of Japan, Population Bulletin, vol. 44, no. 2 (July 1989). :

. Reading. Japan: The Coming Collapse. London, 1992.

25. , : Enigma, The Japan Problem, Foreign Affairs, vol. 62, no. 2 (Winter 1986-87), pp. 288-303.

26. . D. Halberstam Can We Rise to the Japanese Challenge? Parade, 9 October 1983; and Fallows, More Like Us.

429

27. Morse Japan's Drive to Pre-eminence, , -. . : van Wolferen The Japan Problem Revisited, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 4 (Fall 1990), pp. 42-55.

28. . : M.L. Balfour. Britain and Joseph Chamberlain. London/Boston, 1985, pp. 17-19, 207-210, 298-300; . Kennedy, The Realities Behind Diplomacy. London, 1980, pp. 22-24.

29. . Emmott. SunAlso Sets. . :

Japanese Finance: Falling Apples, Economist Special Survey, 8 December 1990.

30. Japan's New Idea, Business Week, 3 September 1990; Vogel Pax Nip-ponica, passim; Zengage and Ratcliffe. Japanese Century, Morse Japan's Drive to Preeminence, passim; Japanese Technology, Economist Survey, 2 December 1989; Japan, At Your Service, Economist, 20 October 1990, pp. 83-84.

31. . Fallows More Like Us ( , ).

32. . .: . Choate. Agents of Influence. New York, 1990.

33. Van Wolferen. Enigma, pp. 403-5. : , [] , , , . Zengage and Ratclifte. Japanese Century. game plan; . pp. 192-93. . : . White's The Danger from Japan, New York Times Magazine, 28 Juli 1985.

34. Reconsider Japan, Economist, 26 April 1986, pp. 19-20.

35. . Porter. Competitive Advantage of Nations.

36. : Morse. Japan's Drive to Pre-eminence. : The Restructuring of the U.S.-Japan Alliance, 29 July 1989. .

37. . Burstein. Yen! ch. 11; D.S. Zakheim Japan's Emerging Military-Industrial Machine, New York Times, 27 June 1990, p. A23; GJL Packard The Coming LLS.-Japan Crisis, Foreign Affairs 66 (Winter 1987-88), pp. 356-57. : F.C. Ikle and T. Nakanishi, Japan's Grand Strategy, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no.3 (Summer 1990), pp. 81-95.

38. . Morse Japan's Drive to Pre-eminence, passim; From Superrich to Superpower, Time 4 July 1988, pp. 28-31. . : KB. Pyle. Japan, the World, and the Twenty-first Century, The Political Economy of Japan, w}.2,The Changing International Context, eds.T.Ino-guchi and D.I. Okimoto, Stanford, Cal., 1988, pp. 446-86.

39. Rankings, Wall Street fomal, World Business Report, 20 September 1991, pp. R8-R9.

40. Ibid.

41. W. J. Broad In the Realm of Technology, Japan Looms Ever Larger, New York Times, 28 May 1991, pp. Cl, C8. ( , .

430

.)

42. CIA Handbook of Economic Statistics, 1990 (Washington, D.C., 1990), p.162.

43. Martin Graying of Japan, p. 7.

44. D. E. Sanger Tokyo Official Ties Birth Decline to Education, New York Times, 14 June 1990; D. E. Sanger Minister Denies He Opposed College for Japanese Women, New York Times, 19 June 1990.

45. The Silvering of Japan, Economist, 7 October 1989, p. 81.

46. Ibid.; The Dwindling Japanese, Economist, 26 January 1991, p. 36; Martin Graying of Japan; and R. S. Jones The Economic Implications of Japan's Aging Population, Asian Survey, vol. 28, no. 9 (September 1988), pp. 958-69. .

47. No Way to Treat a Guest, Economist, 1 June 1990, p. 36; Revised Immigration Law Is Criticized as Foreign Workers Wait to Be Deported, Japan Times, Weekly International Edition, 11-17 June 1990, p. 3.

48. Sanger Minister Denies..., passim ( ); Jones Economic Implications, p. 969; The Dwindling Japanese.

49. The Dwindling Japanese.

50. .: . Maruyama Japan's Agricultural Policy Failure, Food Policy (May 1987), pp. 123-26; Yesterday's Fanning, Economist, 20 August 1988, pp. 58-59; Here Comes Farmer Cilessan, Economist, 8 June 1991, pp. 35-36.

51. . L. LaGanga U.S. Agriculture, Biotech Firms Cut Good Deals with Japanese, Los Angeles Times, 9 April 1990, p. D3; Yamaguchi Biotechnology:

New Hope for Japan's Farmers, pp. 36 - 40.

52. FJ. Galde and D.G. Aubrey Changing Climate and the Pacific, Oceanic, vol. 32, no. 4 (Winter 1989 - 90), pp. 72-73.

53. . Prowse Japan Deserves a Little Respect, Financial Times, 7 May 1991, p. 38.

54. Van Wolferen. Enigma, passim; House, Though Rich, Japan Is Poor in Many Elements of Global Leadership, passim.

55. . Johnson Japan in Search of a 'Normal' Role, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (U.C., San Diego), Policy Paper no. 3, July 1992, .

9

1. World Resources 1990-91, . 345.

2. Ibid., pp. 244 - 43. , , , , 100 .

3. , Trends in Developing Economies 1990, . 244, 1989 . 4 400

431

. , , 5 000 . , World Resources 1990-91 (. . 1), 5 000 , 5,6 4,2 .

4. Trends in Developing Countries 1990, pp. 113-269.

5. Ibid., p. 108.

6. A. Coale Fertility and Mortality in Different Populations with Special Attention to China, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, vol. 132, no. 2 (1988), p. 186. H. Angang and Z. Ping. China's Population Development (Beijing, 1991), 15 ., . 13.

7. China: The Mewling That They'll Miss, Economist, 13 August 1988, p. 31;

Z. Yi, Population Policies in China: New Challenge and Strategies, . J.M. Eekelaar and D. Pearl (eds.).An Aging World: Dilemmas and Challenges for Law and Social Policy. Oxford, 1989, pp. 61-62.

8. Peasants' Revolt, Economist, 30 January 1988, p. 27.

9. China: The Mewling That They'll Miss, p. 63.

10. China: The Mewling That They'll Miss.

11. S. WuDunn China, with Even More to Feed, Pushes Anew for Small Families, New York Times, 16 June 1991, p. 12.

12. Yi Population Policies in China, p. 65.

13. Coale Fertility and Mortality in... China, p. 189.

14. Ibid., p. 188; .: N. Ogawa Aging in China: Demographic Alternatives, Asia-Pacific Population Journal, vol. 3, no. 3 (September 1988), pp. 21-64. : Angang and Ping. China's Population Development.

15. M. Tain and R. Menon The Greying of India, India Today, 30 September 1991,pp.24-33.

16. : B.L.C. Johnson. Development in South Asia. Harmonds worth, Mddsx., 1983, p. 169; 80- . : World Resources 1990 -91, . 257.

17. B. Crossette Why India Is Still Failing to Stop Its Population Surge, New York Times, 9 July 1989, Week in Review, p. 3.

18. : World Resources 1990-9I, pp. 255,257.

19. . J. McCormick. The World Economy. Patterns of Growth and Change. Oxford, 1988, p. 251.

20. : . L. . Johnson. Development in soothsay, ch. 12, Levels of Living and the Plight of the Poor.

21. World Resources 1990-91, p. 245 ( 1987 .).

432

22. .: Johnson. Development in South Asia, chs. 5-8;

McCormick. World Economy, pp. 236-48; . . Farmer Perspectives on the Green Revolution in South Asia, Modem Asian Studies 20 (1986), pp. 175-99.

23. ., , : PJS. Mann Green Revolution Revisited: The Adoption of High Yielding Variety Wheat Seeds in India, Journal of Development Studies, vol. 26, no. 1 (October 1989), pp. 131 - 44.

24. Johnson. Development in South Asia, chs. 6-7.

25. L. Kaye The White Revolution, Far Eastern Economic Review, 24 March 1988,p.112.

26. J. McMilIan et al. The Impact of China's Economic Reforms on Agricultural Productivity Growth, Journal of Publical Economy, vol. 97, no. 4 (1989), pp. 781-85; N. R. Lardy Agricultural Reforms in China, Journal of International Affairs 39 (Winter 1986), pp. 91-104.

27. The Economist World Atlas and Almanac. 1989, p. 222.

28. , , : Kennedy, Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, p. 442.

29. Y. Yang and R. Tyers The Economic Costs of Self-Sufficiency in China, World Development, vol. 17, no. 2 (1989), p. 234.

30. Ibid.

31. .: Johnson. Development in South Asia, p. 141; . Mar-ton. Multinationals, Technology, and Industrialization. Lexington, Mass., 1982, ch. 10, India.

32. Asia, Economist, 23 June 1990, p. 27.

33. A. Vaidyanathan Indian Economic Performance and Prospects, .:

P.K. Ghoch (ed.). Developing South Asia. Westport, Conn., 1984, pp. 10-11.

34. 1950 1978 - 79 . : Johnson. Development in South Asia, p. 136; 1989 . Trends in Developing Economies 1990, p. 264.

35. Trends in Developing Economies 1990, p. 269 , 1980 . 13,2%, , , 10%. . : TheStatesman'sYearbookl990-91 J.Paxton (ed.). New York/London, 1990, p. 644, , 1984 . 7,4 . 222,5 . .

36. Asia, Economist, 23 June 1990, . 27.

37. IJ. Ahluwalia Industrial Growth in India: Performance and Prospects, Journal of Development Economics 28 (1986), p. 8; Asia, Economist, 23 June 1990,.27.

38. .: . Schell. To CetRichIs Glorious: China in the '80s. New York, 1985.

39. J. P. Sterba Long March, Wall Street Journal, 16 June 1989, p. A4.

40. China, Economist, 20 October 1990, p. 40; Trends in Developing Economies 1990,pp.114,270.

41.0 .: Kennedy. Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pp. 454 -58.

433

42. Rich China, Poor China: The Gap Keeps Growing, Business Week, 5 June

1989. pp. 40-41; Amid the Sourness, a Portion of China That Is Still Sweet, Economist, 19 August 1989, pp. 21-22. . : E.F. Vogel. One Step Ahead in China: Guangdong Under Reform. Cambridge, Mass., 1990; D. Goodman. China's Regional Development. London, 1989.

43. When the Reforming Spirit Flags, Economist, 1 April 1989, pp. 29-30;

J.P. Sterba, How the Twisting Path of China's Reform Led to Gims ofTiananmen, Wall Street Journal, 16 June 1989, pp.Al,A4.

44. China Begins a New Long March, Business Week, 5 June 1989, pp. 38-46.

45. China's Economy: Joyless Christmas Tidings, Economist, 24 November

1990. pp. 32 - 33; N. D. KristofAt the Businesses Owned by Beijing: The Ink Is Red, New York Times, 18 November 1990, Week in Review, p. 2.

46. P. . . Goodwin Soldiers and Statesmen: Chinese Defense and Foreign Policies in the 1990s, : S.S.Kim (.).China and the World. Boulder, Colo., 1989, p.192.

47. . : G.Sega}. Defending China. Oxford, 1985;Segal.^e-thinking the Pacific, chs. 12 - 13; J. Keegan and A. Wheatcroft. Zones of Conflict. New York, 1978, ch. 15, China: The Zones of Vulnerability; G. Chaliand and J. P. Rageau.^4 Strategic Atlas. New York, 1985, pp. 67,143-50; R. Delfs A Two-Front Threat: China Sees Danger from Japan, Soviet Union, Far Eastern Economic Review, 13 December 1990, pp. 28-30.

48. . : J. Clad Power Amid Poverty: India Puts National Pride Before Defence Efficiency, Far Eastern Economic Review, 7 June 1990, pp. 47-51; A. Gupta The Indian Arms Industry:

A Lumbering Giant,Asian Survey, vol. 30, no. 9 (September 1990), pp. 847 - 61.

49. . : Kennedy. Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, , pp. 5361T. : A. Prakosh A Carrier Force for the Indian Navy, Naval War College Review, vol. 43, no. 4 (Autumn 1990), pp. 58-71.

50. : Development Brief, Economist, 26 May 1990, . 81; Paxton (ed.). Statesman's Yearbook 1990-91, p. 364.

51. Development Brief; Paxton (ed.). Statesman's Yearbook 1990-91, p. 630 ( 1981 .) 47% 25% , 1980- , , .

52. : N. KristofIn Rural China, Road to School Is All Uphill, New York Times, 3 December 1990, pp. Al, A15.

53. UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1989, Paris, 1989, Table 1, Educational Attainment.

54. Ibid.; . : Paxton (ed.) Statesman's Yearbook 1990-91, p. 364.

55. UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1989, Table 3.11, Third level: teachers and institutions by type of institution.

56. Sohnson. Development in South Asia, pp. 213-15.

57. UNESCO Statistical Yearbook 1989, Table 5.3, Scientific and technical personnel in R&D.

58. UNESCO Statistical Digest 1987, Paris, 1987, p. 188 (China) and p. 196 (India).

434

59. Johnson. Development in South Asia, p. 214.

60. D. Ernst and D. O'Conner. Technology and Global Competition, OECD;

Paris, 1989,p.53.

61. Marton. Multinationals, Technology, and Industrialization, p. 236. .: S. Lall. Developing Countries as Exporters of Technology. A First Look at the Indian Experience. London, 1982, p. 19 ( 3.1), , , .: World Link, vol. 3, nos. 9/10 (September-October 1990), Area Profil, .

62. , .: Johnson. Development in South Asia.

63. ( ) , . : Crossette Why India Is Still Failing to Stop Its Population Surge.

64. . : J. Polumbaum Dateline China: The People's Malaise, Foreign Policy 20 (Winter 1990-91), pp. 163-81; L.W. Pye China: Erratic State, Frustrated Society, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 4 (Fall 1990), pp. 56-74.

65. M. P. Singh The Crisis of the Indian State, Asian Survey, vol. 30, no. 8 (August 1990), p. 813; . Weinraub India Peers at Its Future with a Sense of Gloom, New York Times, 14 July 1991, p. E2.

66. . Crossette As Violent Year Ends, India Pleads for Peace, New York Times, 1 January 1991, p.A5; A.S.Abraham The Failure of India's FlingwithV. P. Singh, Wall Street Journal, 14 November 1990, p.A16 (op-ed).

67. India's Upheavals, Wall Street Journal, 14 November 1990, p. A16 ( ).

68. The South China Miracle, Economist, 5 October 1991, pp. 19-44.

69. Ibid.

70. 1987 . .: World Resources 1990-91, pp. 244-45.

71. . Nickerson China Copies Worst Polluters, Boston Globe, 20 December 1989, pp. 1, 16. . : Pollution in Asia, Economist, 6 October 1990, pp.21-26.

72. : W. Yuging Natural Conservation Regions in China, Ambio, vol. 16, no. 6 (1987), pp. 326-31; . Yuanjun and Z. Zhongzing Environmental Pollution and Control Measures in China, Ambio, vol. 16, no. 5 (1987), pp. 257-61. Nickerson China Copies Worst Polluters .

73. . Govind Recent Developments in Environmental Protection in India:

Pollution Control, Ambio, vol. 18, no. 8 (1989), p. 429. ; , . - : . Wicker Battered and Abused, New York Times, 25 November 1988, p. A31.

74. Govind Recent Developments in Environmental Protection in India, p. 430.

435

75. Pollution in Asia, p, 22.

76. Nickerson China Copies Worst Polluters, p. 16.

77. Ibid.

10

1. World Tables J99J. World Bank, Washington, D.C 1991, pp. 268-69,352-53.

2. Ibid.

3. . : Trends in Developing Economies 1990, pp. 299 - 303.

4. .: F. Braudel. Civilization and Capitalism, vol. 3, The Perspective of the World. New York, 1986, pp. 506-11.

5. .: P. Lyon Emergence of the Third World, .: . Bull and A. Watson (eds.). The Expansion of International Society. Oxford, 1983, pp. 229ff.; G. Barra-clough.An Introduction to Contemporary History. Harmondsworth, Mddsx., 1967 edn., ch. 6, The Revolt Against the West.

6. J. Ravenhill The North-South Balance of Power, International Affairs, vol. 66, no. 4 (1990), pp. 745-46. . : J. Cruickshank The Rise and Fall of the Third World: A Concept Whose Time Has Passed, World Press Review 38 (February 1991), pp. 28-29.

7. Ravenhill North-South Balance of Power, p. 732.

8. W. L. M. Adriaansen and J. G. Waardensburg (eds,).A Dual World Economy. Rotterdam, 1989.

9. P. Drysdale The Pacific Basin and Its Economic Vitality, .: Morley (ed.). Pacific Basin, p. 11.

10. S. Fardoust and A. Dhareshwan. Long-Term Outlookfor the World Economy: Issues and Projections/or the 1990s. World Bank, Washington, D.C., February 1990, p. 9, Table 3.

11. .: Taiwan and Korea: Two Paths to Prosperity, Economist, 14 July 1990, pp. 19 - 21; : South Korea, Economist Survey, 18 August 1990. : L. A. Veil Time of the New Asian Tigers, Challenge 30 (July - August 1987), pp. 19-55.

12. N. D. Kristof In Taiwan, Only the Strong Get U. S. Degrees, New York Times, 26 March 1989, p. 11.

13. , , : J. Paxton (ed.). Statesman's Yearbook 1990-91; : R.N.Gwynne. New Horizons? Third World Industrialization in an International Framework. New York/London, 1990, p. 199.

14. 1987 . , , 33,5% 1990- ., .: Trends in Developing Economies, p. 300. 7 : . Fukuchi and

436

M. Kagami (eds.). Perspectives on the Pacific Basin Economy: A Comparison of Asia and Latin America. Tokyo, 1990, p. 31 (Table 10).

15. Fukuchi and Kagami (eds.). Perspectives on the Pacific Basin Economies, p. 4 (Table 1) . . : . Hughes Catching Up: The Asian Newly Industrializing Economies in the 1990s,Asian Development Review, vol. 7, no. 2 (1989), p. 132 (and Table 3).

16. The Yen Block, Economist Survey, 13 July 1989; Japan Builds a New Power Base, Business Week, 20 March 1989, pp. 18-25.

17. Taiwan and Korea: Two Paths to Prosperity, p. 19; South Korea: A New Society, Economist, 15 April 1989, pp. 23-25.

18. : Development Brief, Economist, 26 May 1990, . 81, : World Development Report 1990, pp. 178-79.

19. When a Miracle Stalls, Economist, 6 October 1990, pp. 33-34 ( no ); Trends in Developing Economies 1990, pp. 299-300 ( ); R. A. Scalapino Asia and the United States: The Challenges Ahead, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 1 (1989-1990), .: pp. 107-12; Hong Kong, in China's Sweaty Palm, Economist, S November 1988, pp. 19-22.

20. .: Asia 2010: The Power of People, Far Easten Economist Review, 17 May 1990, pp. 27-58. .: South Korea, Economist Survey, 18 August 1990, pp. 8-9.

21. Population: The UNFPA Experience. New York, 1984, ch. 4, Latin America and the Caribbean, pp. 51-52.

22. A.F. Lowenthal Rediscovering Latin America, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 4 (Fall 1990), p. 34.

23. : Latin America's , Economist, 9 December 1989, . 14.

24. . : G. W. Landau et al . Latin America at a Crossroads. Trilateral Commission, New York/Paris/Tokyo, 1990, p. 5, : Economic and Social Progress in Latin America: 1989 Report. Inter-America Development Bank, Washington, D.C., 1989, Table B-1, p. 463.

25. . , : Paxton (ed.). Statesman's Yearbook 1990-91; : Economist World Atlas and Almanac, pp. 131-157. , ? (ch. 11), , (ch. 12), .:

Gwynne. New Horizons.

26. World Resources 1990-91 ,. 39.

27 . Ibid., p. 246.

28. .: World Resources 1990-91, pp. 33-48, Latin America at a Crossroads, passim; McCormick. World Economy, ch. 13;

Latin American Debt: The Banks' Great Escape, Economist, 11 February 1989, pp.73-74.

437

29. .: Paxton (ed.). Statesman's Yearbook 1990-91, pp. 95, 236; . , -, Development Brief, Economist, 26 May 1990, . 81.

30. .. Martinez Argentina: Living with Hyperinflation,.Atlantic Monthly 266 (December 1990), p. 36.

31. Paxton (ed.). Statesman's Yearbook 1990-91, pp. 584, 605.

32. . Kamm Latin America Edges Toward Free Trade, Wall Street Journal, 30 November 1990, p. A10.

33. . Famsworth Latin American Economies Given Brighter Assessments, New York Times, 30 October 1990; Latin America's New Start, Economist, 9 June 1990, p. 11; N.C. Nash A Breath of Fresh Economic Air Brings Change to Latin America, New York Times, 13 November 1991, pp. A], D5.

34. Latin America's Hope, Economist, 9 December 1989, p. 15; Nash Breath of Fresh Economic Air Brings Change to Latin America, passim.

35. J. Brooke Debt and Democracy, New York Times, 5 December 1990, p. A16; P. Truell As the VS. Slumps, Latin America Suffers, Wall Street Journal, 19 November 1990, p. 1.

36. . : Lowenthal Rediscovering Latin America, passim; : GA. Fauriol The Shadow of Latin American Affairs, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 1 (1989-90), pp. 116-34; MJ). Hayes The US. and Latin America: A Lost Decade? Foreign Affiurs, vol. 68, no. 1 (1988-89), pp. 180-98.

37. : Economist World Atlas and Almanac, pp. 256-71, , , ( ).

38. The Arab World, Economist Survey, 12 May 1990.

39. .: Major Religions of the World, Hammond Comparative World Atlas (Maplewood, NJ 1986 edn.), p. 41.

40. G. Brooks and T. Horwitz Shaken Sheiks, Wall Street Journal, 28 December 1990, pp. Al, A4.

41. Arab World, p. 12.

42. M.A. Heller The Middle East: Out of Step with History, Foreign Affairs, vol. 69, no. 1 (1989-90), pp. 153-71.

43. . : S. F. Wells and M. A. Bruzonsky (eds.). Security in the Middle East, Boulder, Colo./London, 1987, pp. 1-3.

44. DE. Duncan, Africa: The Long Goodbye, Atlantic Monthly, July 1990, p.20.

45. J.A. Marcum Africa: A Continent Adrift, Foreign Affairs, vol. 68, no. 1 (1988-89), p. 177. . . R. Richburg Why Is Black Africa Overwhelmed While East Asia Overcomes? International Herald Tribune, 14 July 1992, pp. 1,6.

46. . Famsworth Report by World Bank Sees Poverty Lessening by 2000 Except in Africa, New York Times, 16 July 1990, p. A3; Marcum Africa: A Continent Adrift, passim; Duncan Africa: The Long Goodbye, passim; The Bleak Continent, Economist, 9 December 1989, pp. 80-81.

438

47. . Fischer Developing Countries in the Process of Economic Globalization, Intereconomics (March - April 1990), p. 53.

48. J.S. Whitaker. How Can Africa Survive? New York, 1988.

49. Goliber Africa's Expanding Population: Old Problems, New Policies, pp. 4-49, .

50. World Resources 1990-91, . 254.

51. Ibid., p. 251 ( 2025 .) . 258 ( ). LJC. Altman, WHO Says 40 Million Will Be Infected with Aids by 2000, New York Times, 18 June 1991, p. ( , ).

52. : Whitaker. How Can Africa Survive?, . 4 The Blessings of Children; J.C. Caldwell and P. Caldwell High Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa, Scientific American (May 1990), pp. 118 -23.

53. The Bleak Continent, passim; Whitaker. How Can Africa Survive? chs. 1 2; Goliber Africa's Expanding Population, pp. 12 - 13.

54. Whitaker. How Can Africa Survive?; Duncan Africa: The Long Goodbye, passim.

55. . : Fruits of Containment, Wall Street Journal, 18 December 1990 (op-ed), p. A14; .: . McRae Visions of Tomorrow's World, Independent (London), 26 November 1991.

56. Aid to Africa, Economist, 8 December 1990, p. 48.

57. Economist World Atlas and Almanac (1989), p. 293.

58.0 . : Economist World Atlas and Alman, . : . Ingham. Politics in Modem Africa: The Uneven Tribal Dimension (London/New York, 1990), passim; K. Ingham, Africa's Internal Wars of the 1980s - Contours and Prospects, United States Institute of Peace, In Brief 18 (May 1990).

59. Paxton (ed.). Statesman's Yearbook 1989, p. 84; Goliber Africa's Expanding Population, p. 15.

60. Paxlor\(ed.). Statesman's Yearbookl989, pp.1139-60 ( ).

61. TJL Odhiambo Human Resources Development: Problems and Prospect in Developing Countries, Impact of Science on Society 155 (1989), p. 214.

62. Odhiambo Human Resources Development, p. 215. 63 P. Lewis Nyere and Tanzania: No Regrets at Socialism, New York Times, 24 October 1990.

64. Wind of Change, but a Different One, Economist, 14 July 1990, p. 44. , , Trends in Developing Economiest 990, 1989 : Sub-Saharan Africa: From Crisis to Substainable Growth, : The Bleak Continent, Economist, 9 December 1989, pp. 80-81.

439

65. .: P. Pradervand. Listening to Africa Developing Africa from the Grassroots. New York, 1989; . Schneider. The Barefoot Revolution. London, 1988;

. McAfee Why the Third World Goes Hungry, Commonweal 117 (15 June 1990), pp. 384-85.

66. Duncan Africa: The Long Goodbye, p. 24; G. Hancock. .Lords of Poverty. The Power, Prestige, and Corruption of the International Aid. Boston, 1990;

G.B.N.Ayittey, No More Aid for Africa, Wall Street Journal, 18 October 1991 (op-ed),p.A14.

67. Whitaker. How Can Africa Survive? p. 231.

68. ., , : Fischer Developing Countries in the Process of Economic Globalization, pp. 55-63.

69. Caldwell and Caldwell High Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa, p. 88.

70. AIDs in Africa, Economist, 24 November 1989, p. Ib; E. Eckholm and J. Tiemey AIDs in Africa: A Killer Rages On, New York Times, 16 September 1990, pp. 1,4; CM. Becker The Demo-Economic Impact of the AIDs Pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa, World Development 18 (1990), pp. 1599-1619.

71. World Resources 1990-91, p. 254.

72. Ibid.

73. 2 4 () .: World Resources 1990-91, pp. 33-48; . Wicker Bush Ventures South, New York Times, 9 December 1990, p. E17; T. Golden Mexico Fights Cholera but Hates to Say Its Name, New York Times, 14 September 1991, p. 2.

74. Arab World, p. 4.

75. Ibid., p. 6; YJ. Ibrahim, In Algeria, Hope for Democracy but Not Economy, New York Times, 26 July 1991, pp. Al, A6.

76. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 258-59.

77. . : Arab World, p. 5.

78. .: Pradervand. Listening to Africa, passim. D. Pearce et al. Sustainable Development: Economics and Environment in the Third World. Aldershot, Hants, 1990.

79. F. Gable Changing Climate and Caribbean Coastlines, Oceanus, vol. 30, no. 4 (Winter 1987-88), pp. 53-56; G. Gable and D.G. Aubrey Changing Climate and the Pacific, Oceanus, vol. 32, no. 4 (Winter 1989-90), pp. 71-73.

80. Arab World, p. 12.

81. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 176-77; LJL Brown et al. Stale of the World 1990,pp.48-49.

82. Juma. Gene Hunters, pp. 226-28.

83. D. Pirages. Global Technopolitics. Belmont, Cal., 1989, p. 152.

84. McAfee Why the Third World Goes Hungry, p. 380.

85. .: .. Ghosh (ed.). Technology Policy and Development. Westport, Conn., 1984, p. 109.

86. A. Smith, The Geopolitics of Information: How Western Culture Dominates the World. Oxford/New York, 1980, p. 13.

87. Ibid.

88. . J. Dixon et al. (eds.). Multinational Corporations and the Third World. London/Sydney, 1986, passim.

440

89. .: . Ommode.A Political Economy of the African Crisis. London/New Jersey, 1988, .: pp. 3101.

90. M. Clash Development Policy, Technology Assessment, and the New Technologies, Futures 22 (November 1990), p. 916.

91. L. Cuyvers and D. Van den Bulcke Some Reflections on the Outward-oriented Development Strategy of the Far Eastern Newly Industrialising Countries, .: pp. 196-97 . Adriaansen and Waardenburg (eds.). Dual World

Economy.

92. World Development Report 1991: The Challenge of Development (World Bank/Oxford University Press, Washington, D.C., 1991). .: World Bank's Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries (Washington, D. C., 1991).

11

1. J. Paxton (ed.). The Statesman's Yearbook, 1982 -S3, p.1228.0 .: Economist World Atlas and Almanac 1989, pp. 96-97.

2. . : . Dibb. The Soviet Union: The Incomplete Superpower. London, 1986,p.67.

3. : Statesman's Yearbook 1982 -83, . 1240. : UN-ESCO Statistical Digest 1987, pp. 330-31.

4. UNESCO Statistical Digesti 987, .331, . .

5. J. Paxton (ed.). Statesman's Yearbook 1982-83, p. 1240, .1424. , , 1,1 . , , , (ibid., p. 355).

6. : V. Z. Kresin. Soviet Science in Practice: An Inside View, . J. Cracraft (ed.). The Soviet Union Today: An Interpretive Guide, 2nd edn. Chicago/London, 1988, ch. 24.

7. : . Rice The Evolution of Soviet Grand Strategy, . P. Kennedy (ed.). Grand Strategies in War and Peace. New Haven/London, 1991, ch.9.

8. .: Soviet Military Power (US. Department of Defense, Washington, D.C., annual) The Military Balance (International Institute of Strategic Studies, London, annual), Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. , . :

441

H. S. Rowen and . Wolf, Jr. (eds.). The Future of the Soviet Empire. New York, 1987; . : Dibb. Soviet Union.

9. : Cracraft (ed.). Soviet Union Today, p. 179 (1956-84 .); . Passell Where Communist Economics Fell Short, New York Times, 17 December 1989, p. E3 (1985-88 .);

A.R. Myerson The Soviet Economic Morass, New York Times, 16 September

1990. p. F5 (1989 .); . Famsworth Soviet Economic Output Off Sharply, New York Times, 22 December 1990, p. 8 (1990 . 1991 .). 13%, 18% 25%: .: The Soviet Economy: Still Bust, Economist, 24 August 1991, p. 21;

J. Stemgold, Coup Is Linked to Debt Crisis by Soviet Aide ( ), New York Times, 16 October

1991..1,10.

10. .: US. Rowen and . Wolf, Jr. (eds.). The Impoverished Superpower. San Francisco, 1990; A. Aganbegyan. The Economic Challenge of Perestroika, ed. M. Barratt Brown. Bloomington, Ind., 1988, p. 2; .:

Cohen and Wilson. Superpowers in Economic Decline, pp. 106.; Meyerson Soviet Economic Morass, p. 5.

11. . : R.W. Judy and VL. Clough. The Information Age and Soviet Society. Indianapolis, 1989, ch.1.

12. : Cohen and Wilson. Superpowers in Decline, pp. 9ff. . Z, To the Stalin Mausoleum, Daedalus,ml. 119, no. 1 (Winter 1990), pp. 311-12,317-18.

13. .: R.W. Campbell. Energy, . A. Bergson and H.S. Levine (eds.). The Soviet Economy: Towards the Year 2000. London, 1983; L. Dienes An Energy Crunch Ahead in the Soviet Union? . M. Bomstein (ed.). The Soviet Union: Continuity and Change.Boutlder, Colo., 1981; M.I. Goldman. The Enigma of Soviet Petroleum. London, 1980.

14. Russia Drills Less Oil, OPEC Keeps It Cheap, Economist, 8 Junel983, p. 65.

15. PJL Gregory and R.C. Stuart. Soviet Economic Structure and Performance, 3rd edn. New York, 1986, p. 323.

16. P. Truell Western Study Says Soviet Aid May Be Futile, Wall Street Journal, 24 December 1990, p. 2.

17. .: Bergson and Levine (eds.). Soviet Economy, chs. 4 and 3;

M.I. Goldman. Gorbachev's Challenge: Economic Reform in the Age of High Technology. New York, 1987, pp. 32ff.; D.G.Johnson Agriculture, : Cracraft (ed.).Soviet Union Today, pp. 198-209; . Keller Soviet System Dooms a Bumper Crop, New York Times, 20 August 1990.

18. P. Torday Chaos Looms for Soviet Economy, Independent (London), 29 August 1991, p. 6.

19. .: Eberstadt Health of an Empire, : Rowen and Wolf(eds.). The Future of the Soviet Empire, pp. 221-45; Sick Men of Europe, Economist, 22 March 1986, p. 53; J. Lloyd Soviet Citizens' Plight Exposed, Financial Times, 18 August 1988.

442

20. V. Bukovsky The Political Condition of the Soviet Empire, .: Rowen and Wolf (eds.). The Future of the Soviet Empire, pp. 11-39; D.E. Powell, A Troubled Society, in Cracraft (ed.), Soviet Union Today, ch. 30; Z, To the Stalin Mausoleum, passim.

21.0 .: . Gumbel Gorbachev Urges Soviet Congress to Expand Powers, Wall Street Journal, 17 December 1990;

N. Gardels: Helping to Diminish the Perils of Perestroika, Wall Street Journal, 30 January 1989 (op-ed.); B. Keller Soviet Economy: A Shattered Dream, New York Times, 13 May 1990, pp. Al, A12.

22. R^. Clem, Ethnicity, : Cracraft (ed.). Soviet Union Today, p. 306.

23. : Ibid., pp. 304 - 5.

24. . Keenan Rethinking the USSR, Now That It's Over, New York Times, 8 September 1991, p. E3.

25. Gorbachev's Turbulent South, Economist, 13 January 1990, p. 45; F. X. Clines In Soviet Union, Dizzying Disunion, New York Times, 26 October 1990, p.A6.

26. P. Gumbel Soviets Are at a Loss About Ethnic Unrest, Wall Street Journal, 21 July 1989, p. A12; The Battle Lines of the Republics, Economist, 23 September 1989, p. 58.

27. Clem Ethnicity, p. 306. .: M. Hauner, What Is Asia to Us? Boston/London, 1990, : pp. 9, 233-34, 247-52; D. Lieven Gorbachev and the Nationalities, Confict Studies 216 (November 1988).

28. . : D. Lieven The Soviet Crisis, Conflict Studies 241 (May 1991), .: pp. 20ff.

29. V. Kvint Russia as Cinderella, Forbes, 19 February 1990, pp. 103- 8;

. Keller, Selling Soviet Unity, New York Times, 19 December 1990, pp. Al, All;

B. Keller Russia Cuts Share of Soviet Budget, New York Times, 28 December 1990,pp.Al,A10.

30. Torday Chaos Looms for Soviet Economy.

31. .: N. Mansergh. The Commonwealth Experience. London, 1969; . Porter. The Lion's Share: A Short History of British Imperialism 1850-1970. London, 1976. .: S. Greenhouse To Ukrainians, Separation Follows Laws of Nature, New York Times, 20 December 1990, p. A10; Lieven Soviet Crisis, passim.

32. .: BJ). Porter and J.G. Roche The Expanding Military Power of the Soviet Union, .: Rowen and Wolf (eds.). The Future of the Soviet Empire, pp. 143-61; FJ. Gaffiney Is Moscow Cutting Its Military? No, It's Building Up, New York Times, 17 November 1989 (op-ed.); J. Churba, Soviet Breakout Washington/London, 1988 - .

33. A. KaratnyckyThe Many Armies of the Soviet Union, Wall Street Journal, 28 August 1990 (op-ed.); J. Fialka Soviets Begin Moving Nuclear Warheads out of Volatile Republics, Wall Street Journal, 22 June 1990, pp. Al, A4.

34. .: D. Ross Where Is the Soviet Union Heading? H.S. Rowen and C. Wolf, The Future of the Soviet Empire, .: Rowen and Wolf (eds.). Future of the Soviet Empire, pp. 259-79,279 -324; TJ. Colton. The Dilemma of Reform in the Soviet Union, 2nd edn. New York, 1986, ch. 4, Reform and the Soviet Future. .: Cohen and Wilson. Superpowers in Economic Decline, pp. 90ff.

443

35. . Fairbanks Russian Roulette: The Danger of a Collapsing Empire,Policy Review 57 (Summer 1991), pp. 7-8.

36. M. Feshbach Population and Labor Force, .: Bergson and Levine (eds.). Soviet Economy: Towards the Year 2000, p. 79. . : MS. Bernstam Trends in the Soviet Population, .: Rowen and Wolf(eds.).Future of the Soviet Empire, pp. 185-214.

37. Colton. Dilemma of Reform in the Soviet Union, p. 42.

38. Clem Ethnicity, pp. 304 - 5.

39. M.S. Bemstam Trends in the Soviet Population, p. 209.

40. Ibid., p. 208.

41. .: M. Feshbach and A. Friendly. Ecocide in the USSR. New York, 1992.

42. A Way of Life Evaporates, Economist, 21 September 1991, p. 59.

43. Judy and Clough. Information Age and Soviet Society, p. 29.

44. . : ibid., p. 15.

45. Ibid.

46. If Gorbachev Dares, Economist, 6 July 1985.

47. Economist World Atlas and Atmanac 1989, p. 209.

48. .: Kennedy. Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pp. 320 -23.

49. .: WE. Griffith (ed.). Central and Eastern Europe: The Opening Curtain. Boulder, Colo., 1984; . Gati. The BLOC That Failed. Bloomington, IN, 1990; : . Carton Ash. The Uses of Adversity. New York, 1989 The Magic Lantern. New York, 1990.

50. 1990 . .: Trade, Exchange Rates and Reserves, Economist, 15 December 1990, p. 100.

51. Democracy in Eastern Europe, Economist, 15 December 1990, p. 5 ( , , ). .: Eastern Europe Moves Right, Economist, 24 March 1990, pp. 21-23.

52. . Bohlen Ethnic Rivalries Revive in Eastern Europe, New York Times, 12 November 1990, pp. Al, A12; C. Bohlen, 3 East Europe States Grope for Union, New York Times, 16 December 1990, p. 16.

53. V. Meier Yugoslavia: Worsening Economic and Nationalist Crisis, .:

Griffith (ed.). Central and Eastern Europe, p. 276. . : I. Banac Political Change and National Diversity, Daedalus, vol. 119, no. 1 (Winter 1990), pp. 141-59.

54. C.R. Whitney Burst of Freedom in Czechoslovakia May Split Czechs from Slovaks, New York Times, 3 June 1990, p. 14. . : Slovakia Pressing Czechs for an Equal Partnership, New York Times, 18 May 1990.

55. .: Bohlen Ethnic Rivalries Revive in Eastern Europe, passim; : Perestroika: And Now for the Hard Part, Economist, 28 April 1990.

56. S. Greenhouse Long, Painful Road Ahead to Free Markets for East, New York Times, 10 November 1990, pp. 1,4.

444

57. J. Dempsey Lights Going Dim in Eastern Europe, Financial Times, 13 September 1990,p.27.

58. R. D. Hormats Don't Let the West Erect a New Iron Curtain, Wall Street Journal, 27 December 1990, p.A8.

59. Financial Times, 17 July 1990, p. 2.

60. : Daedalus, vol. 121, no. 2 (Spring 1992), The Exit from Communism.

61. F. Barringer Birth Rates Plummeting in Some Ex-Communist Regions of Eastern Europe, New York Times, 31 December 1990, p. A3.

62. Europe in Turmoil, Agricultural Outlook (July 1990), pp. Z8 - 32.

12

1. . L. Friedman Old Feuds and the New Order, International Herald Tribune, 13 July 1992, p.1.

2. ., , : D. Burstein. Euro quake: Europe's Explosive Challenge Will Change the World. New York, 1991, p.11.

3. S.P. Huntington The US. Decline or Renewal? Foreign Affairs, vol. 67, no. 2 (Winter 1988-89), pp. 93-94.

4. S-Hoffmann The European Community and 1992, Foreign Affairs, vol. 68, no. 4 (Fall 1989), p. 27.

5. .:

Who Wants What in the Brave New Europe, Economist, 1 December 1990, pp. 46-47.

6. G. Agnelli The Europe of 1992, Foreign Affairs, vol. 68, no. 4 (Fall 1989), pp. 61-70; J. Joffe Reunification II: This Time, No Hobnail Boots, New York Times, 30 September 1990, p. E3.

7. C.R. Whitney Gulf Fighting Shatters Europeans' Fragile Unity, New York Times, 23 January 1991, p. All.

8. , . .: Economist World Atlas and Atmanac 1989, . 87. , , . .: ibid., . 90, Top International Banks.

9. . : Annual Review of Engineering Industries and Automation 1988, vol. I.

10. Hoffmann European Community and 1992, p. 25.

11. . : Europe of 1992, passim.

12. Burstein. Euroquake, pp. 129-30.

13. Honmann. European Community and 1992, pp. 27-28.

14. Burstein. Euroquake, pp. 25-28.

15. World Resources 1990-91, p. 245.

16. Economist World Atlas and Atmanac 1989, p. 159.

445

17. G. Bolte How Stubborn Can You Get? Time, 8 October 1990, p. 65. : . Roth Europe's Small Fanners See Bleak Future, Wall Street Journal, 24 April 1992, p.AllA.

18. ., , : D. Reperant, The Most Beautiful Villages of Prance. New York, 1990, passim.

19. . : Burstein. Euroquake, p. 150. 20.Ibid.,pp.40ff,155ff.

21. .: European Community, Economist Survey, 7 July 1990, :

pp.29-30.

22. Ibid., p. 24.

23. Ibid., p. 5.

24. .: G.V. Treverton. Making the Alliance Work The United States and Western Europe. Ithaca, N.Y 1985; J. Joffe. The Limited Partnership:

Europe, the United States, and the Burdens of Alliance. Cambridge, 1987; C.McInnes. NATO's Changing Strategic Agenda. London/Boston, 1990; JJ. Mearsheimer. Conventional Deterrence. Ithaca, N.Y., 1983; R.W. Tucker and LWrigley (eds.). The Atlantic Alliance and Its Critics. New York, 1983.

25. . Gottfried and P. Bracken (eds.). Reforging European Security. Boulder, Colo., 1990, pp. 3-4 , .

26. Ibid., pp. 236, . : J. Dean and SJL Resor Constructing European Security System.

27. : . A. Kupchan and CA. Kupchan After NATO: Concert of Europe, New York Times, 6 July 1990, p. A25 (op-ed). , .:

C.R. Whitney NATO, Victim of Success, Searches for New Strategy, New York Times, 26 October 1991, pp. 1, 5; S. Hoffmann Today's NATO and Tomorrow's, New York Times, 27 May 1990, p. E13 (op-ed); A. Riding The New Europe, New York Times, 20 November 1990, p. A14.

28. .: D. Calleo. The German Question Reconsidered. New York, 1978; W. Gruner. Die deutsche Frage. Munich, 1985.

29. Saying the Unsayable About the German ( ), Spectator, 14 July 1990, pp. 8-10; W. Satire. Defending Germany, New York Times, 22 June 1990, p. A27.

30. . Geremek The Realities of Eastern and Central Europe, Change in Europe. Washington, D.C.: Plenary of the Trilateral Commission, April 1990, p. 10.

31. . : . Lewis The Bane of Nations, New York Times, 28 November 1990 (op-ed); .: Burstein. Euroquake, ch. 5.

32. The Unpopularity of Two-Speed Europe, Economist, 14 September 1991, pp.89-90.

33. The Graying of Europe, Business Week, 6 February 1989, pp. 12-16; A. Riding, Western Europe, Its Births Falling, Wonders Who'll Do All the Work, New York Times, 22 July 1990, pp. 1,12; H. de Jouvenel Europe at the Dawn of the Third Millennium: A Synthesis of the Main Trends, Futures, vol. 20, no. 5 (October 1988), p. 515.

446

34. . : Graying of Europe?; : Riding Western Europe, Its Births Falling...

35. The Missing Children, Economist, 3 August 1991, pp, 43-44; DJ.van de Kaa Europe's Second Demographic Transition, Population Bulletin, vol. 42, no. 1 (March 1987), pp. 3-57; J. Gapper Skills Shortage Stalls the Workers' March, Financial Times, 5 September 1990; Riding, Western Europe, Its Births Falling..., passim.

36. West Germany's Unexpected Boost from the East, Com-merzbank'a : Economist, 13 January 1990, . 62.

37. . Carrington Central Europe Borders Tighten as Emigres Flood In from East, Wall Street Journal, S February 1991, p.A8.

38. Italy: The Numbers Game, Economist, 26 May 1990, p. 25.

39. Graying of Europe, p. 15.

40. Burstein. Euroquake, p. 137. .: F. Heisbourg. Population Movements in Post Cold War Europe, Survival, vol. 33, no. 1 (January February 1991), pp. 31-43.

41. PJL. Montgomery European Community Asks Heavy Energy Tax to Curb Emissions, New York Times, 26 September 1991, p. D3.

42. .: . A. Wilson and J. F.B. Mitchell, Simulated Climate and C02-Induced Climate Change over Western Europe, Climatic Change 8 (1986), pp. 11-42; F. Bultot et al. Estimated Annual Regime of Energy-Balance Components, Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture for a Drainage Basin in the Case of a C02 Doubling, Climatic Change 12 (1988), pp. 39-56 ( ).

43. Cleaning Up the Mediterranean, Economist, 21 December 1991, pp, 19-24.

44. Economist World Atlas and Almanac 1989, p. 105.

45. Europe's Farm Farce, Economist, 29 September 1990, p. 17.

46. P. Bye Biotechnology and Food/Agricultural Complexes, : Yoxen and Di Martino (eds.). Biotechnology in Future Society, p. 77. .

47. Ibid.

48. Ibid.; Economist, 20 October 1990, p. 15; German Regulatory Firms Flee Regulatory Climate, Science, 16 June 1989, pp. 1251-52; . Green and E. Yoxen The Greening of European Industry: What role for biotechnology? Futures (June 1990),pp.475-95.

49. .: G. Junne and J. Bijman The Impact of Biotechnology on European Agriculture, : Yoxen and Di Martino (eds.). Biotechnology in Future Society, : . 83.

50. Bye Biotechnology and Food/Agricultural Complexes, p. 69.

51. Europe's Farm Farce, passim; Bolte. How Stubborn Can You Get? p, 65.

52. Junne and Bijman Impact of Biotechnology on European Agriculture, p. 84.

53. . : Europe in Turmoi : Agricultural Outlook, July 1990, pp. 28ff.

447

54. Gapper Skills Shortage Stalls the Workers' March, passim.

55. : Work of Nations, passim.

56. . : Ohmae. Borderless World.

57. : . Brimelow. The Darker Side of 1992, Forbes, 22 January 1990, pp. 85-89.

13

1. , , i New York Times J Wall Street Journal. 3

2. . : S. Hunlington The U5. s-Decline or Renewal? pp. 76-96.

3. .: . Grunwald The Second American Century, Time, S October 1990, pp. 70-75.

4. Schlosstein, End of the American Century, D. Calleo. Beyond American Hegemony. New York, 1987; R. Rosecrance (ed.) America as an Ordinary Power. Ithaca, N.Y., 1976.

5. H.R. Nau. The Myth of America's Decline. New York, 1990; Rosecrance. America's Economic Resurgence; Nye. Bound to Lead; J. Kotkin and J. Kishimoto. The Third Century: America's Resurgencein the Asian Era. New York, 1988. , ? America as an Ordinary Power, . .: Rosecrance. Rue of the Trading States.

6. Nye. Bound to Lead 3. .

7. .: Nye. Bourn/ to Lead; Rosecrance. America's Economic Resurgence; A. Anderson and DL. Bork (eds.). Thinking About America: The United States in the 1990s. Stanford, Cal., 1988; E.K. Hamilton (ed.). America's Clobal Interests: A New Agenda. New York, 1989; M. Green and M. Pinsky (ed.), America's Transition: Blueprints for the 1990s (Lanham, Md., 1990). , , .

8. : Report of the Secretary of Defense, ..to the Congress (annual, Washington, D.C.); The Military Balance (International Institute of Strategic Studies, London, annual); RUSI and Brassey 's Defence Yearbook (an-T\ua\);American Defense Annual, .

9. . Tyier Pentagon Imagines New Enemies to Fight in Post-Cold-War Era, New York Times, 17 February 1992, pp, A 1, A8. . : .. 11 and A Wohlstetler (eds.). Discriminate Deterrence: Report of the Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy,

448

Washington, D.C., 1988, pp. 13-22; .: .. Klare The U.S. Military Faces South, Nation, 18 June 1990, pp. 841,858-62.

10. . 7, : Mathews Redefining Security Sorensen Rethinking National Security, : RJ. Bamett After the Cold War, New Yorker, 1 January 1990, pp. 65 - 76. : S. Van Evera Why Europe Matters, Why the Third World Doesn't; American Grand Strategy After the Cold War, Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 13, no. 2 (June 1990), pp. 1-51 ( ).

11. 1988 . , , .

12. Nye. Bound to Lead, p. 239 and passim; PA. Gigot After Communism, World Still Needs U.S. Troops, Wall Street Journal, 11 February 1990 (op-ed).

13. .: A Lewis When Decline Hurts, New York Times, 26 September 1990 (op-ed); D. Boren New Decade, New World, New Strategy, New York Times, 2 January 1990; . Wicker The 'Super' Concept, New York Times, 25 November 1990, p. El 1.

14. .: Robinson and Gallagher.A/-rica and the Victorian, . . .: Van Evera Why Europe Matters, Why the Third World Doesn't, pp. 15ff.

15. ., : . Mortimer Sharing the Bill for Peace, Financial Times, 14 September 1990, p. 17; A Ireland A Hawk Says: Pull Our Troops Out, New York Times, 7 March 1989 (op-ed); W.L. Schlosser Let's Cut the Subsidies for Allies Defense, New York Times, 27 November 1988 (letters); Time to Share the Burden, Economist, 7 May 1988, pp. 23-24. 1988 . : M. Prowse, Scales Out of Balance, Financial Times, 13 August 1991,p.10.

16. . ., : Cohen and W.Ason. Superpowers in Economic Decline, passim; LJ.Dumas. The Overburdened Economy. Berkeley/Los Angeles, 1986, .: pp. 57-63, 297ff.; . Russett Defense Expenditures and National Well-Being,Amencan Political Science Review, vol. 76, no. 4 (December 1982), pp. 767-77; DeGrasse. Military Expansion, Economic Decline. Armonk, N.Y., 1985, passim.

17. :

Economic Report of the President (Washington, D.C., 1990), a no 1989 . : Survey of Current Business (Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 1990), Table 1.2. . . , . : Wall Street Journal, 12 December 1990, .17. 1991 . OECD, : Wall Street Journal, 13 December 1991, . A10, (10 March 1992, . 2) 1990-91 ., 0,4%.

449

18. .: Kennedy. Rise and Fall of the Creat Powers, . , .

19. The Elusive Boom in Productivity, New York Times, 8 April 1984, business section, pp. 1, 26. .: Richer Than You, Economist, 25 October 1986,pp.13-14.

20 D. Gergen Can America Stay on Top? U.S. News & World Report, 16 July 1990, p. 68. .: L. Silk Who Is No. I? It's Hard to Say, New York Times, 27 July 1990, p. D2; A. Murray U.S. Economy Leads Japan's But For How Long? Wall Street Journal, 13 June 1990.

21. .: Kennedy. Rise and Fall of 'the Great Powers, Tables 21,31,32.

22. L.H. Clark and A. L. Malabrf Productivity Indicates Sluggish Economy, Wall Street Journal, 6 July 1989, p. A2; . ( 1960 1986) . L. Dertouzos et al. Made in America: Regaining the Productive Edge. Cambridge, Mass., 1989, p. 29. , , . 31, , 36% 1979 1986 . .

23. Kennedy. Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, p. 527.

24. .: A.L. Malabrt. Within Our Means. New York, 1991, pp. xix - xx; : D.P. Calleo. The Bankrupting of America. New York, 1992.

25. : Malabrt. Within Our Means, pp. 11-12. .: . Friedman. Day of Reckoning. New York, 1988; .: Denning the Debt Bomb, Economist, 3 November 1990, p. 75.

26. .: US. Feldstein (ed.). The United States in the World Economy. Cambridge, Mass., 1987, pp. 562-63, .. : pp. 560ff.

27. H. Stout, VS. Foreign Debt Widened Last Year, Wall Street Journal, 2 July 1990, p. 42. , , , , .

28. Dertouzos et al. (eds.).Made in America, pp. 40-41. . : S.S. Cohen and J. Zysman. Manufacturing Matters. New York, 1987; R. Dombusch et al. The Case for Manufacturing in America's Future. Rochester, N.Y., 1987.

29. Office of Technology Assessment (US. Congress) Council on Competitiveness; :

Dertouzos et al. (eds.).Made in America; M.G. Barons. Competing for Control. Cambridge, Mass., 1988; IS. Yudken and . Black Targeting National Needs: A New Direction for Science and Technology Policy, World Policy Journal 7 (Spring 1990), pp. 251-88; G.N. Hatsopoulos et al. US. Competitiveness: Beyond the

450

Trade Deficit, Science 241 (15 July 1988), pp. 299-307; P. Krugman. The Age of Diminished Expectations. Cambridge, Mass., 1990, passim.

30. : Dertouzos et al. Made in America, p. 7.

31. .: GJL Searle. The Quest for national Efficiency, 1899-1914, 2nd edn. Atlantic Highlands, NJ., 1990, passim; F. Crouzet. The Victorian Economy. London, 1982, pp. 371ff; EJ. Hobsbawm. Industry and Empire. Harmondsworth, Mddsx., 1969, pp. 136-53,172-85.

32. Kennedy. Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, p. 515.

33. . H. Stein Who's Number One? Who Cares? Wall Street Journal, 1 March 1990 (op-ed); Ohmae. Borderless World, passim; Reich. Work of Nations, ch. 13 and passim.

34. .: Nye. Bound to Lead, passim.

35. : W. Hummer A Contrarian View: A Short, Mild Recession, Wall Street Journal, 1 January 1990; . . Wall Street Journal 1989 ., 27 January 1989; CJL Morris The Comming Global Boom, Atlantic, October 1989, pp. 51-64.

36 . P. Kennedy Fin-de-Siecle America, New York Review of Books, 28 June 1990, pp. 31-40; Lewis. When Decline Hurts, passim; H. Alien Red, White, and Truly Blue, Washington Post, 26 November 1990, pp. Bl, B4; R. Bernstein Euphoria Gives Way to Fractured Feelings of Gloom, New York Times, 23 December 1990, p. E3; H. Carter U.S. Could Well Snatch Defeat from the Jaws of Victory, Wall Street Journal, 29 March 1990, p.A13.

37. J. Chancellor. Peril and Promise: A Commentary upon America. New York, 1900, p. 23.

38. Ibid.

39. W. Meyer-Larsen America's Century Will End with a Whimper, World Press Review, January 1991, p. 27. ( .) . : R. Pear Study Says US. Needs to Battle Infant Mortality, New York Times, 6 August 1990, pp. Al, B9; W.B. Maher Reform Medicine: The Rest Will Follow, New York Times, 9 July 1989, business section, p.3.

40. C.C. Douglas In Black America, Life Grows Shorter, New York Times, 2 December 1989, p. 84.

41. D.R. Gergen Remember the Drag War? U.S. News & World Report, 18 December 1989, p. 84.

42. Crime in America, Economist, 22 December 1990, pp. 29-32.

43. Ibid.; . : ICE. Meyer A Good Word for Calcutta, New York Times, 6 January 1991, p. 18.

44. . Wicker The Iron Medal .New York Times, 9 January 1991, p.A21; U.S. Incarceration Rate Highest in World, Wall Street Journal, 7 January 1991, p. B5.

45. L. Uchitelle, Not Getting Ahead? Better Get Used to It, New York Times, 16 December 1990, Week in Review, pp. 1, 6; A. Murray, Losing Faith: Many Americans Fear U.S. Living Standards Have Stopped Rising, Wall Street Journal, 1 May 1989,pp.1,10.

46. . : Calleo. Beyond American Hegemony, pp. 109-113.

451

47. . : L. Thurow. The Zero-Sum Society. New York, 1980, passim.

48. UJS. Is Said to Lag in School Spending, New York Times, 16 January 1990, p. A23; J. Hood Education: Money Isn't Everything, Wall Street Journal, 2 February 1990.

49 The Stupidification of America, New Perspectives Quarterly, vol. 7, no. 4 (Fall 1990), p. 47.

50. J. Kozol. Illiterate America. New York, 1985, pp. 4,8-9.

51. . O'Reilly America's Place in World Competition, Fortune, 6 November 1989, p. 88; C.0. Baker (ed.). The Condition of Education 1989, vol. 1, Elementary and Secondary Education. Washington, D.C 1989, p. 78; A. Shanker U.S. Rock Bottom, New York Times, 5 February 1989, p. E7 (advertisement).

52. Kozol. Illiterate America, p. 212.

53. C.D. Baker (ed.). The Condition of Education 1989, vol. 1, p. 84; GAI. Gros-venor Those Panamanian Pandas, New York Times, 31 July 1988, p. 25.

54.A Nation at Risk (National Commission on Excellence in Education, Washington, D.C., 1983), p. 5.

55. R. Hoffmann Ignorance, Ignorantly Judged, New York Times, 14 September 1989 (op-ed);A Nation at Risk, p. 11. , , , .

56. .: US. Is Said to Lag in School Spending, New York Times, 16 January 1990.

57. . : . J. Bumett The Case for More School Days, Atlantic, November 1990, pp. 78-106; Japan-245, United States-180, Washington Post, 15 October 1990, p. A14 (editorial).

58. Everybody Counts: A Report to the Nation of the Future of Mathematics Education (National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1989), p. 90. . :

D.P. Doyle, Time for America to Set National Education Norms, Hudson Opinion, October 1989, p. 1.

59. N. Gardels The Education We Deserve, New Perspectives Quarterly, vol. 7, no. 4 (Fall 1990), pp. 2-3.

60. : ibid., pp. 52-55,18-19. (New Perspectives Quarterly) 17 / /. . : Half the Nation's Children Without a Fair Chance, New York Times, 25 September 1988, p. E25; : EJ). Hirsch. Cultural Literacy: What Every American Needs to Know. Boston, 1987.

61. . : S. Knack Why We Don't Vote Or Say Thank You, Wall Street Journal, 31 December 1990, p. 6; : . Carter We Have Seen the Enemy, and It Is Ignorance, Wall Street Journal, 17 November 1988, p. A23.

62. : . Phillips. The Politics of Rich and Poor. New York, 1990, passim; : Reich. Work of Nations, chs. 14,17-18,23-24.

452

63. . Novak What Became of the Ugly American? Forbes, 30 April 1990, p, 120. . : . Wattenberg. The First Universal Nation. New York, 1990; G. Gilder. You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet, Forbes, 4 April 1988, pp. 89-93; A. Balk America Is No. 1. It'll Stay No. I, New York Times, 31 July 1990 (op-ed); . ( ) : Commentary, September 1990, The American 80s: Disaster or Triumph?

64. Nye. Bound to Lead, passim; Grunwald Second American Century, passim; Yes, You Are the Superpower, Economist, 24 February 1990, p. 11.

65. G.F. Will Who Will Stoke the Fires? Newsweek, 9 April 1990, p. 78.

66. .: . Lind America as an Ordinary Country,American Enterprise (September October 1990), pp. 19-23; 1?. Judis The Conservative Crackup, American Prospect, Fall 1990, pp. 30-42.

67. . ( ) : Chancellor. Peril and Promise, passim.

68. Ibid., p. 23.

69. , , . . 7 Projection of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1988 to 2080, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, no. 1018 (US. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C., 1989).

70. J. . Guralnik et al. Projecting the Older Population of the United States, Milbank Quarterly, vol. 66, no. 2 (1988), pp. 283-308; On the Economic Implications of Demographic Change in the United States, Population and Development Review, vol. 15, no. 2 (June 1989), pp. 379-89.

71. WA. Henry Beyond the Melting Pot, Time, 9 April 1990, pp. 28-33.

72. S. Thomstrom The Minority Majority Will Never Come, Wall Street Journal, 26 July 1990 (op-ed).

73. D. James Bar the Door, New York Times, 25 July 1992, p. 21.

74. P. Francese Aging America Needs Foreign Blood, Wall Street Journal, 27 March 1990 (op-ed); F. Bamnger A Land of Immigrants Gets Uneasy About Immigration, New York Times, 14 October 1990, p. E4; RJ. Hermstein I0 And Falling Birth Rates, Atlantic, May 1989, pp. 73 et see.; D.E. Bloom and N.G. Bennett, Future Shock, New Republic, 19 June 1989, pp. 18-22.

75. Henry Beyond the Melting Pot, passim.

76. G. Wright Where America's Industrial Monopoly Went, Wall Street Journal, 20 December 1990, p. A16.

77. .: Reich. Work of Nations.

78. Workforce 2000: Work and Workers for the 21st Century, Hudson Institute, Indianapolis, 1987, p. 98; . : New Perspectives Quarterly, Fall 1990, p. 37.

79. : Report of the Comparison of the Skills of the Average Work Force.America's Choice: High Stalls or Low Wages! Rochester, N.Y., 1990, p. 23. . : NJ. Perry How to Help America's Schools, Fortune, 4 December 1989, pp. 137-42. .: R. Atkinson Supply and Demand for Scientists and Engineers: A National Crisis in the Making, Science, 27 April 1990, pp. 425-32; a : Needed: A Home-Grown Talent, New York Times, 26 December 1990, p. A30 (editorial).

SO.America's Choice: High Skills or Low Wages! pp. 19-21.

453

81. Ibid., p. 21; Workforce 2000, . 25; On the Economic Implication of Demographic Change in the United States, passim.

82. America 's Choice: High Stalls or Low Wages! . .: J. Jacobs Training the Workforce of the Future, Technology Review 93 (August September 1990), pp. 66-72, .

83. Technology, Public Policy, and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture, pp. 3, 1 1. (1.8% , , , 2000 , ).

84 ..: LJL Brown et al. State of the World 1990, chs. land 4.

85. Technology, Public Policy, and the Changing Structure of American Agriculture, p. 20.

86. .: F. Rexen and L. Munck. Cereal Crops for Industrial Use in Europe. Copenhagen, 1984.

87. . Glautz and J.E. Ausubel The Ogallala Aquifer and Carbon Dioxide:

Comparison and Convergence, Environmental Conservation, vol. 11, no. 2 (Summer 1984'), pp. 123-130.

88. G.S. Giese and D. G. Aubrey Losing Coastal Upland to Relative Sea-Level Rise: 3 Scenarios for Massachusetts, Oceanus, vol. 30, no. 3 (Fall 1987), pp. 16-22.

89. HE. Schwarz and LA. Dillard, The Impact on Water Supplies, Oceanus, vol. 32, no. 2 (Summer 1989), pp. 44-45.

90. J.P. Cohn Gauging the Biological Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect, Bi'o-Science, vol. 39, no. 3 (March 1989), pp. 142-46.

91. WJ). Nordhaus Greenhouse Economics: Count Before You Leap, Economist, 7 July 1990,pp.21-24, .:.22.

92. . : . Bamett. The Collapse of British Power. NewYork/London, 1972.

14 XXI

1. Economist, 11 October 1930, . 652. ( - .)

2. .: J.L. Gaddis Toward the Post-Cold War World, Foreign Affairs, vol. 70, no. 2 (Spring 1991), pp. 102 - 22; Wright and McManus. Flashpoints.

3. LJL Brown et al., State of the World 1989, ch. 10, Outlining a Global Action Plan.

4. Ibid., 1990, ch. 7, Cycling into the Future.

5. DM. Kamimen Technology for Development: Sustaining, not Obliterating, the Environment, Research & Exploration, Winter 1991, pp. 3-5.

454

6. : WJS. Dietrich. In the Shadow of the RisingSun. University Park, Pa., 1991, passim; Competing Economies: America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim. Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States, Washington, D.C October 1991, .: .13-14; 1. Within Our Means, ch. 6.

7. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 61-62, 256. : LJL Brown et al. State of the World 1992,p.96.

8. P. Waldman Conflict in Algeria over Islamic Militaxy Pits Father Against Son, Wall Street Journal, 23 January 1992, pp. Al, A8.

9. World Resources 1990-91, p. 262; Paxton (ed.). Statesman 's Yearbook 1990-91, p. 1087.

10. Paxton (ed.). Statesman 's Yearbook 1990-91, p. 785; World Resources 1990-91, p. 263.

11. : . Kung, Global Responsibility. In Search of a New World Ethic. New York, 1991.

12. World Resources 1990-91, pp. 256-57, 262-63.

13. Ibid., p. 266 ( 16.5).

14. Ibid.

15. DJE. Sanger Minister Denies He Opposed College for Japanese Women, New York Times, 19 June 1990; The Dwindling Japanese, Economist, 26 January 1991,p.36.

16. The Missing Children, Economist, 3 August 1991, pp. 43-44.

17. . : T.F. Homer-Dixon On the Threshold, pp. 76-116.

18. ., : J. Bellini. High Tech Holocaust. San Francisco, Cal., 1986, p. 251; Ehrlich and Ehrlich. Population Explosion, chs. 1 and 12. . ., : J. . Overkill. Harmondsworth, Mddsx., 1981 edn..

19. : Homer-Dixon On the Threshold, pp. 100-101.

20. Ibid.

21. : L.R. Brown et al. State of the World; .: 1992 edition, chs. 3,9,11.

22. Homer-Dixon On the Threshold, passim; Eberstadt. Population Change and National Security, passim; Foster Global Demographic Trends to the Year 2010, passim.

23. T.R. Malthus. An Essay on Population, 2 vols. London, 1914 edn., pp. 261-62. ... .


















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